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#1
12-03-2006, 12:36 AM
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200NL flopped nut flush draw
This hand didn't feel right.
1/2 6max. I have $200, villain covers. Villain has some crazy stats after only 91 hands: 58 VPIP, 8 PFR, 7 AF, 6 WSD. But really, I hadn't actually SEEN him do anything weird yet. folded to me on the button, I raise to $7 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Only BB calls. $15 pot. Flop K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] He bets $15, I call. $45 pot. Turn K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] He bets $45, I fold. 
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#2
12-03-2006, 12:41 AM
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Re: 200NL flopped nut flush draw
I think you can raise the flop there, his PSB lead is probably strong from a donk but it could well get you a free card on the turn / build a big pot to stack him if you hit.
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#4
12-03-2006, 12:44 AM
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Re: 200NL flopped nut flush draw
Well, if it doesn't feel right, then it doesn't feel right. My standard line here is raising the flop, with the intention of probably calling a push (depends on odds, but you'll probably have them. You usually (but not always) need about 2:1 to call off your stack on the flop with a flush draw). Most of the time you're going to simply be called. If this is the case, then unless you catch help on the turn, I think you should take a free card.
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#7
12-03-2006, 12:48 AM
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Re: 200NL flopped nut flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
I think you can raise the flop there, his PSB lead is probably strong from a donk but it could well get you a free card on the turn / build a big pot to stack him if you hit. [/ QUOTE ] I think this is correct except the part about his PSB lead being probably strong. I think his range is pretty big here. I DON'T think he's folding a lot to a CRaise here, but he's not necessarily strong.
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#8
12-03-2006, 12:49 AM
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Re: 200NL flopped nut flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Jim why do you prefer calling the flop rather than raising? [/ QUOTE ] I think he's going to 3-bet all in. [/ QUOTE ] Call then, what's the problem? Raising lets you fold hands like middle pairs and random bluffs without a showdown.
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#9
12-03-2006, 12:53 AM
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Re: 200NL flopped nut flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Jim why do you prefer calling the flop rather than raising? [/ QUOTE ] I think he's going to 3-bet all in. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, a lot of people lead with sets. I also think calling is best. Less risk than exposing yourself to a 3 bet by him on flop.
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#10
12-03-2006, 12:53 AM
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Re: 200NL flopped nut flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
Call then, what's the problem? Raising lets you fold hands like middle pairs and random bluffs without a showdown. [/ QUOTE ] We will have odds to call, but if we *know* he's going to 3bet all-in, then raising is a clear mistake. We will be allowing our opponent to play his perfectly unless, of course, we're behind (which is very unlikely if he 3bets all-in, unless he has a lower flush draw). The problem is raising to fold middle pairs and random bluffs is that we do not have evidence that he will fold these marginal hands, especially with stats like those.
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