any fold equity here?

[AceCR9]

FT bubble of $100 6 handed tonight on Stars

do i have any fold equity here? or am I getting called always by a small pp/A10+? also is his range wider than that- is this ever a complete bluff?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3000 (4 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Button (t75015)
SB (t44699)
BB (t63901)
Hero (t112549)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t9000</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls t7500, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t16950) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

SB bets 9000

[grafyx]

I would not try to push him off his hand here without a good read. He has way too much of his stack in this middle now. I don't think this is a hand he intends to fold very often. Also you have a big stack. Just fold and continue to abuse the bubble. If you call and lose, the stacks will even out and your situation will be much less advantageous.

[AceCR9]

bump for afternoon crowd.

Would a shove be better here if SB had more chips, like 10-12k more? or is it still getting called?

[ianisakson]

ok so after the SB's donkbet on the flop he has 22k behind? and if you shove there is 36k +22k roughly in the pot for calling odds. My first instinct is always that his bet is weak. This is a pretty insignificant board J33 and neither of you probably hit it. In my experience he's betting 9k here with pairs smaller than JJ and overcards, almost all of which he will fold most of the time if you jam. he would definately check-raise most of the time he hits anything worth getting all his chips in. I still don't know if I push here, but I push here often enough to let him know i'm paying attention and he can't lead out donkbet me every time I raise

[NHFunkii]

yes you have some fold equity, yes it's sometimes a complete bluff, but readless I would fold.

[yellowdoyle]

You probably have some fold equity, but villain has committed a fair amount.

It is also a great board for villain to lead at, since it probably missed both of you. I like ian's point about villain probably cr'ing anything that he wanted to get all his chips in with.

Grafyx has a good point on the marginal value of the chips a push here would cost you. You have only lost 3bb's on this hand, which is almost meaningless given your current stack. If you lose an extra ~11bb's (SB's remaining stack) you will have dropped nearly 15bb's which is quite a dent. I think that is more costly than the value you gain by shoving and trying to pick up the pot here.

[grafyx]

[ QUOTE ]
bump for afternoon crowd.

Would a shove be better here if SB had more chips, like 10-12k more? or is it still getting called?

[/ QUOTE ]


Assuming you have 30% equity when called.

You need him to fold 40% of the time with current stacks for the play to be neutral cEV.

If he has 12k more to start the hand, you need him to fold 45% of the time.

If he has 20k more to start the hand, you need him to fold 49% of the time.

[TexRef]

I think he's calling a push here every time with a wide range that has you beat. I'd lay it down and wait for a better spot.

[woodguy]

I find more fold equity in this spot if I call the flop and jam the turn when he checks. Looks more like an overpair than just jamming which tends to get looked up by pairs because it looks like overcards.

If he leads the turn and you don't improve, then easy fold.

Regards,
Woodguy

[ianisakson]

[ QUOTE ]
I find more fold equity in this spot if I call the flop and jam the turn when he checks. Looks more like an overpair than just jamming which tends to get looked up by pairs because it looks like overcards.

If he leads the turn and you don't improve, then easy fold.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

i really like this line, plus you get a chance to hit with your KQ too