NL400 JJ overpair vs TAG/Rock - Page 3

luegofuego · #21 03-09-2007, 01:33 PM

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How can you fold preflop? Looks like a good spot to play for set value. This tightwad will never drop a big pair, which he has here every time... definitely fold the flop, though.

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ummmm..if we are folding this flop, calling preflop is ----EV

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umm....no it isn't. learn math.

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u are without a doubt better at ev calcs than me so if u really burn for this question, i would be pretty interested in what u came up with, taking into account scenarios such as the ones i mentioned in my above post. also dont discount scenarios such as this being one of the very few times this 18/12s decides to mix up his game by reraising 67s without getting his whole stack in postflop, or is reraising AK and wont go broke if he misses.

set mining is so very very 2003.

TheWorstPlayer · #22 03-09-2007, 01:43 PM

well, obviously an EV calc can't just be for set mining... but occasionally people do fold the best hand... the EV calc isn't easy. It can probably be loosely estimated by assuming he always has an overpair and never folds it, though.

mdkrahn · #23 03-09-2007, 02:19 PM

I can't see getting past the turn here.

Villain is aggressive, but unlikely to fire two barrels here with a AK.

And I think with his stats, he's probably calling as opposed to raising hands like 99 or 88's which preflop.

Dan Bitel · #24 03-09-2007, 05:41 PM

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well, obviously an EV calc can't just be for set mining... but occasionally people do fold the best hand... the EV calc isn't easy. It can probably be loosely estimated by assuming he always has an overpair and never folds it, though.

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I don't get you.

Do you think he doesn't cbet AK on this flop?

What odds do you think we need to call preflop for set odds?

TheWorstPlayer · #25 03-09-2007, 05:43 PM

Yes, I think he cb's AK which is why I would call the flop. I was making a very rough approximation with my 'always has an overpair' comment because I think the +EV and -EV from his NOT always having an overpair will roughly cancel out. I like 10:1 against players that I have pretty good control over.

restrikt · #26 03-09-2007, 05:45 PM

Turn bet looks pretty weak... I would call this, and re-evaluate on the river (unless you have some specific read on the player where this is a clear fold...)

Dan Bitel · #27 03-09-2007, 07:47 PM

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How can you fold preflop? Looks like a good spot to play for set value. This tightwad will never drop a big pair, which he has here every time... definitely fold the flop, though.

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Yes, I think he cb's AK which is why I would call the flop.

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why did you change your mind?