crossposted: Bruins chance to win Stanley Cup?

[Triumph36]

[ QUOTE ]
This would be a good bet if the Bruins had a better goalie. In order for them to win the Cup, they need a goalie to carry them to the Finals.

They don't have one good enough, and they won't be able to pick one up at the Trade deadline. Save your money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly right. No, Truth, I haven't watched the Bruins in a while - I do get Center Ice but haven't been using it lately, and the Bruins are about the last team I would choose to watch anyway. Zurvan is correct in saying that if the Bruins were to have a better chance, they should have a worse team and better goalie - I would never trust Tim Thomas in a pivotal game.

And while a 1 seed seems to lose to an 8 every year, that 8 seed rarely advances much farther.

[shemp]

[ QUOTE ]

While those may be good odds, in reality the Boston Bruins have no chance of winning the Stanley Cup. They would have to run several orders of magnitude above their expectation from now until the end of the season in order to do that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Inane.

[shemp]

[ QUOTE ]


And just to be perfectly clear on the issue, I'm certainly not saying that I think the Bruins will win the Cup, just that they should be much less than 85:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the current tradesports bid at 1.4 it seems there's already a money making opportunity available to the intrepid young gambler?

I made my wild guess, what do you put the correct line at?

[34TheTruth34]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


And just to be perfectly clear on the issue, I'm certainly not saying that I think the Bruins will win the Cup, just that they should be much less than 85:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the current tradesports bid at 1.4 it seems there's already a money making opportunity available to the intrepid young gambler?

I made my wild guess, what do you put the correct line at?

[/ QUOTE ]

Somewhere in the neighborhood of 25:1 to 50:1. I know that's a large range, so I'm going to put them on 40:1. I'll know more in a week or two.

And, as far as needing a hot goalie to win in the playoffs, I do agree. It's just never obvious who that goalie is going to be before the playoffs start. Nobody thought much of Mika Kiprusoff (sp?) when he took over towards the end of the season for the Flames a couple of years ago either. Why not Thomas this year?

[Triumph36]

Miika Kiprusoff was also younger with a more reliable pedigree than Tim Thomas. Tim Thomas is already in his 30s - the fact that he is in the NHL at all is quite remarkable. However, I feel he is a below-average goaltender.

It's possible that the odds are favorable - I don't think the odds are 40:1 - but I still wouldn't bet on it.

[shemp]

[ QUOTE ]
Somewhere in the neighborhood of 25:1 to 50:1. I know that's a large range, so I'm going to put them on 40:1. I'll know more in a week or two.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like I said, I don't know anything about hockey, but 40:1 sounds optimistic for an 8 seed with GA>GF.

[evank15]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody thought much of Mika Kiprusoff (sp?) when he took over towards the end of the season for the Flames a couple of years ago either. Why not Thomas this year?

[/ QUOTE ]

Kiprusoff was 27 and had been a solid prospect for San Jose. Those who follow prospects knew Kiprusoff had a chance to be great, not unlike Vesa Toskala the last couple seasons.

Tim Thomas is a 32 year old career AHL/IHL/Euro leaguer. That plus he just isn't all that great. In Kiprusoff's half season of 03-04 he set the NHL record for lowest GAA. You cannot compare the two goalies.

Bruins will be in tough to make the playoffs, let alone make a run for the Cup.

85:1 though....probably worth throwing down 10 or 20 bucks.