Rate my live BR plan

[badhandoop]

I made a post awhile back about possibly relocating to LA for the limit games at the Bike and Commerce. Since then, I've done some more research about other places: AC, Tunica, Pheonix, and a couple others. I found out that the Grand in Tunica offers a very cheap poker room rate, averaging to about $50/night and has very good action.

I'm considering making Tunica kind of a second home for about 6 months out of the year and making a circuit where I go stay and play in LA and Pheonix for about 2 weeks a piece once every 3 months or so.

In the off time, I am planning to designate about 4-5 summertime months for vacation. This would be in the Kentucky/Indiana area. Just to give you an idea of the cost of living, a 1000sqft apartment in a nice area runs about $600/mo here.

The limit games I play range from 10-20 to 30-60 depending on availabilty. I'm looking to start this plan with no less than $25K for bankroll, and $20K in nest egg.

I'm in my early twenties, no medical problems, college grad, have minimal debt, and am unmarried.

With this plan and these factors, how risky or nitty is my BR/nest egg plan 1-10 with 1 being dangerously risky and 10 being old man nitty.

[signal]

I would put you at about a 5.

A 10 would be BR=100,000; NE=100,000
A 7 or 8 would be BR=NE=50,000.

The only reason I put you at 5 is that your savings (nest Egg) seems a little low. If you run really crappy and have like a 30k hand break even stretch, you will still need money to live. If you play 40 hrs/wk (let's say) at 30 hands/hr then you could be dipping into yr savings for 6 months. But, I think it is still manageable; you are just at the minimum for this to work in my opinion.

In the end it depends on what you feel comfortable with and if you have a back up income source if things run badly.

FWIW there was some Ed Miller articles about this subject a few months ago. I would link to them, but his web site is not loading for me now.

[Don Olney]

straight poop here.
You age going to spend about 10 grand just for room. Leaves 10 for food, fuel, etc. This will be cutting it close for the nest egg. BUT
The 25 for bank roll gives you 50 $500 buy-ins for games in the 20/40 range. 30/60 may be a little high for this bank roll.
If you are a winning player with very low swings and play your A game each and every time this is doable.
As long as you do not tilt, blow extra $$ on the skirts and such you will do just fine.

[chucktaylor]

You will have a very hard time finding regular games at the upper limits of your range in Tunica. I believe that the only room that spreads anything higher than 4-8 on a regular basis is the Shoe, and I am not sure how often it speads anything over 10-20.

[JoEyPeNeLoPe]

i'm not a limit player so i don't know about the bankroll but if 25k is a conservative poker bankroll i think your fine... but i'm not so sure it is. I would want a conservative bankroll and at least six months expenses

[*TT*]

#1 - you think there is a difference between Live and Online bankroll management. There is no difference at all, online bankroll theory is based on the same concepts introduced to the poker world by Mason Malmuth in Gambling Theory and other Topics. The only thing that online play added to the conversation is the accuracy of a winrate, we now know that 100 hours is not even a drop in the hat - we have seen corrections after 1.3 million hand databases - its truly amazing how many hand combinations there are and the numerous ways you can extract maximum value/minimum loss.

#2 - Just stick to the 300BB accepted standard for limit play, and adjust accordingly based on your skill level. If your game shows higher variance, then keep an additional 100BB in your roll. If you take a 120BB loss, then drop down a level until you win back the bets.

*note* - normally we would move this topic to Poker Theory, but there is some B&M relevance to the discussion since the game quality at a specific casino are discussed. No harm done of course.

[JJH3984]

[ QUOTE ]
#1 - you think there is a difference between Live and Online bankroll management. There is no difference at all,

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry for the hijack, but there is a difference, at least at similar limits. Because the games online are so much more aggressive/better for the same limits, you need a bigger roll online than in a casino in order to have the same risk of ruin. Bigger edge in a more passive game= smaller bankroll. Of course if your playing 3/6 online and also playing good 20/40-30/60 games in a casino, yr bankroll can be the same in terms of bets. Of course there are also probably maniacal games live where you need a large bankroll even if you have a big edge, but in general, you need a smaller BR in a live environment.

[Packard]

Live players are so much worse than online. Bankroll requirements are much easier to manage playing live with so many calling station limit idiots that you should be fine with 25k as long as you study a lot and play expertly.

Tunica is a nothing town besides the casinos. Friendly people sure but there is a lot of brown cotton fields and nothingness there. I would bring a lot of entertainment with you like a laptop, video games, books etc.

[KurtSF]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
#1 - you think there is a difference between Live and Online bankroll management. There is no difference at all,

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry for the hijack, but there is a difference, at least at similar limits. Because the games online are so much more aggressive/better for the same limits, you need a bigger roll online than in a casino in order to have the same risk of ruin. Bigger edge in a more passive game= smaller bankroll. Of course if your playing 3/6 online and also playing good 20/40-30/60 games in a casino, yr bankroll can be the same in terms of bets. Of course there are also probably maniacal games live where you need a large bankroll even if you have a big edge, but in general, you need a smaller BR in a live environment.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just want to highlight this. While you have a higher edge in the super-loose games you see at low level FL B&M games (higher EV, higher BB/100), the nature of the games _increases_ variance thus increasing bankroll requirements. Its a point I think is often overlooked.

OP, I would recommend running the numbers.

Using a $25,000 bankroll and playing 20-40, plugging in the standard assumptions of 1BB/hour and 15BB standard deviation gives you a risk of ruin of 0.4%, very safe. If you play 30-60 it jumps to 2.5%, more risky, but for someone in your situation where you're young and can get a job if you bust out, manageable. Keep a very close eye on your win rate and standard deviation, as those can change you risk substantially. For instance, say your edge is not what you initially think in these games? If we plug in .5BB/hour and 20BB SD you now have a one in three shot of going busto at 30/60, and would have to drop down to 10/20 or so to get your RoR below 5%. And if you have to drop down to manage risk, you have to start worrying about making your nut every month.

Obviously these are just contrived examples with arbitrary numbers, but if you have good records of your past play (you do, right), just plug your expectations in and find out how your plan stacks up for yourself.

[badhandoop]

As far as my WR goes, I've logged roughly 1200 hours of live play since this time last year and am hovering around 1.5BB/hr for that entire period. My game improved tremendously about 6 months ago when I got some coaching and found new study material.

First 6 months was around 1BB/hr and it improved to 2BB/hr after some leak fixing. From what I've heard, the LA and Pheonix 20-40 games are soft enough to be beaten for 2-3BB/hr.

And yes, if all else fails, I have an extensive IT background and can re-enter the workforce as a wage slave.