Mike Bloomberg Bodog prop.

[snoopdawg]

My first EB thread!

Bet On: If Mike Bloomberg runs for President in 2008 what percentage of the popular vote will he garner?

If Bloomberg doesn't run for President all wagers will be no action. Max. $50.

Over 18.8% +120
Under 18.8% -160

I could not see much more than 10% of America going to an independent such as Bloomberg. And it appears he will run entirely as an independent (not green/libertarian) if he does run.

Thoughts?

[thing85]

There was some discussion about this prop in this thread: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=2#Post11085173

[domer2]

There is so much uncertainty in that bet, plus he is polling at a minimum of 7% right now without even having declared or campaigned. What if he decides to spend $250 million or more? It's certainly not outside the realm of possibility.

[knicknut]

I don't trust Bodog with my money until November 2008. I would need an ROI of at least 100% for that.

[StellarWind]

Don't overlook three major risks:

1. Sometime between now and 11/08 Bodog leaves the U.S. market and cancels all open bets. Your money is tied up for many months with no ROI.

2. Same as above but Bodog is seized or otherwise defaults. You lose part or all of your principal and the loss may not even be deductible as a lost wager.

3. Bloomberg never runs for president and your bet is declared no action in 11/08. Your money is tied up for 16 months with no ROI.

[gsaj18]

This is a very interesting bet...I say if Barack Obama ISNT th e democratic bid, and bloomberg runs, itll be over 18.8%...

I believe this simply because more than ever people simply HATE politicians (aka corrupt, stupid etc.)...Obama (in my opinion) will end up getting the bid and winning the election simply because he is not a "politician"...

If the democratic bid for president goes other ways (somehow-i cant c them winning if barack isnt their bid), then I can completely see bloomberg taking 18.8% of the vote as he is less of a "political" figure...

Itd be interesting to c how this bet changes as the presidential campaign progresses and if he does run for president.

Anyways, right now, I'd make the under bet because I see Barack winning the democratic bid and if that happens I don't see Bloomberg getting over 18.8%

[metsandfinsfan]

is obama favored over hillary right now?

[disjunction]

I agree with those who say that it's -EV based on the Bodog factor.

However, on the bet, 19% is Perot's number. And the voters weren't serious back then, it was no big deal to throw your vote away. In 2008, there is no way that 19% of the electorate would throw their vote away on Bloomberg if he had no chance of winning.

[tipperdog]

I don't know how to factor in the "Doubts About Bodog/Cost of money" arguments that others have raised. But I do know politics (one of the very few things I know). It is HIGHLY UNLIKELY that any third party candidate (particularly a relative unknown like Bloomberg) will poll at 19%.

However, before placing any bets, you should be sure to know all details about the bet. Specifically:

1. Is it 19% nationwide or only on states where he appears on the ballot? If he ran as an independent, it's unlikely he'd appear on the ballot in all states, meaning he won't get more than 0-3% as a write in. This will drive down his overall percentage.

On the flip side, if he only got on the ballot in the Northeast, he'd surely get over 20% in those states, but would be well under nationwide.

2. How does Bodog define "runs for president?" What if (and this is quite possible), he announces an exploratory effort, gets on a bunch of ballots and runs hard. He declares a candidate. But, he gets nowhere and drops out in Sept-Oct. However he's still on ballots and gets 5%. Do we win?

[NickMPK]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a very interesting bet...I say if Barack Obama ISNT th e democratic bid, and bloomberg runs, itll be over 18.8%...

I believe this simply because more than ever people simply HATE politicians (aka corrupt, stupid etc.)...Obama (in my opinion) will end up getting the bid and winning the election simply because he is not a "politician"...

If the democratic bid for president goes other ways (somehow-i cant c them winning if barack isnt their bid), then I can completely see bloomberg taking 18.8% of the vote as he is less of a "political" figure...

Itd be interesting to c how this bet changes as the presidential campaign progresses and if he does run for president.

Anyways, right now, I'd make the under bet because I see Barack winning the democratic bid and if that happens I don't see Bloomberg getting over 18.8%

[/ QUOTE ]

Bloomberg is much less likely to run if Obama is the Dem candidate. He needs two "establishment" nominees to create an opening for himself.