Barry Bonds indicted

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Are you claiming that an acquittal doesnt shift the likelihood AT ALL? Or just that it could never possibly shift the likelihood any meaningful amount? Or what?

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Hypothetically, I would expect an acquittal to shift the likelihood that Bonds was not aware that he was given steroids considerably (although this will also depend on what evidence is permitted and disallowed). The likelihood of whether he was actually given steroids with or without his knowledge (or with his intentional or reckless disregard of what was being put into his body) could change in either direction depending on the evidence presented at trial -- or there could be no effect at all.

I don't want to start a new thread to ask this, so I will ask it here: What gag order?

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I was under the impression that Bonds was not allowed to talk about anything discussed at the grand jury proceedings since they were sealed.

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Actually, the grand jury witness is the only person in the grand jury room that is allowed to disclose his testimony outside of the grand jury room without leave of court (at least in the federal system). Everyone else is bound to secrecy.