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#1
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Re: How long do I withhold tips? Dealer mistake costs me $1800. (long)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] As an example, if I was deciding whether to make a call on the flop to fill a gut shot and while I was making that decision the dealer prematurely turned over one of my 4 outs for that gutshot, it changes the pot odds I would need to make that call. I now have 3 outs on the turn and 4 on the river. Before the fiasco I would have thought I had 4 outs on the turn (4/47) and then 4 outs on the river (4/46) to hit or: 1 - (43/47 * 42/46) = 16.5%. But after the fiasco my turn chances have been reduced to 3 outs (3/46) so by the river my chances are 1 - (43/46 * 42/46) = 14.7%. [/ QUOTE ] You chances of hitting on the river are better than you suggested because you have a 1 in 24 chance of hitting exactly the exposed card. [/ QUOTE ] I see your point but I think you made a typo. Assuming one other opponent the chances of hitting that one card would be 1 in 42 instead of the 1 in 46 I had mistakenly assumed. This takes into account the 3 flop cards, 1 turn card, 2 opponent cards, 2 of my own cards, and the 2 prior burn cards. So the chances on the river of hitting the 4 outs are (3/46 + 1/42) and the total chances of hitting the hand after the fiasco would be: 1 - ((43/46) * (1 - (3/46 + 1/42)) = 14.74% Rounding to two places the difference was 14.65% vs. 14.74%. This doesn't significantly change the point of my argument - which is that using this procedure the player yet to act has an advantage - which could be significant depending on what card originally came out on the turn. That advantage is much greater than the slight change in odds the player yet to act would have if the seen card was shuffled back in for the turn (roughly 0.1% change for the turn and 0.1% for the river). |
#2
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Re: How long do I withhold tips? Dealer mistake costs me $1800. (long)
[ QUOTE ]
I see your point but I think you made a typo. Assuming one other opponent the chances of hitting that one card would be 1 in 42 instead of the 1 in 46 I had mistakenly assumed. This takes into account the 3 flop cards, 1 turn card, 2 opponent cards, 2 of my own cards, and the 2 prior burn cards. [/ QUOTE ] No typo. There are 25 cards in the reshuffled stub and the exposed card is one of them. Actually I did make a mistake it hits 1 in 25 or 4%. |
#3
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Re: How long do I withhold tips? Dealer mistake costs me $1800. (long)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I see your point but I think you made a typo. Assuming one other opponent the chances of hitting that one card would be 1 in 42 instead of the 1 in 46 I had mistakenly assumed. This takes into account the 3 flop cards, 1 turn card, 2 opponent cards, 2 of my own cards, and the 2 prior burn cards. [/ QUOTE ] No typo. There are 25 cards in the reshuffled stub and the exposed card is one of them. Actually I did make a mistake it hits 1 in 25 or 4%. [/ QUOTE ] OK I see my mistake. All of the dealt hands don't make it into the stub. I get to 26 cards left because even though there is another burn card on the turn, that card could be the exposed card and the player never gets to see it... The 26 cards left takes into account the 3 flop cards, 1 turn card, 18 opponent cards , 2 of my own cards, and the 2 prior burn cards. The result would be 16.2% after fiasco vs. 16.5% before fiasco. Not a big deal... However, if the exposed card were to be reshuffled into the stub before the turn, the chances of the gutshot coming out would now be 19.4% !!! (this is because that card would have a 1/27 chance of showing up on the turn...). So there would be an unfair advantage if a significant card was reshuffled for the turn. Wow do I have egg on my face. Thanks for showing me the light, RR. |
#4
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Re: How long do I withhold tips? Dealer mistake costs me $1800. (long)
I bet you haven't dealt a day in your life. Stop being a nit. STFU.
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#5
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Re: How long do I withhold tips? Dealer mistake costs me $1800. (long)
[ QUOTE ]
I get to 26 cards left because even though there is another burn card on the turn, that card could be the exposed card and the player never gets to see it... The 26 cards left takes into account the 3 flop cards, 1 turn card, 18 opponent cards , 2 of my own cards, and the 2 prior burn cards. [/ QUOTE ] There are 25 cards in the stub. 20 were dealt out, 4 on the board and 3 burns. The third burn cannot be the exposed card because it hasn't been shuffled in yet. If it is a 10 handed table there are 25 cards in the reshuffle and 1 of them is the exposed card. If the premature card is the river instead of the turn the reshuffle really helps someone who needs that card. The worst case I have heard of was in a Omaha game where someone had a one outer but then the card was dealt prematurely so he called because it was promoted to a 4:1 shot (4 cards plus the exposed card in the reshuffled Omaha stub). |
#6
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Re: How long do I withhold tips? Dealer mistake costs me $1800. (long)
Don't worry, you're still up $1200 Sklansky dollars! Just hope your landlord has read Theory of Poker.
Captain R, down more Sklansky dollars than he has real dollars. |
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