($27) Why is calling -EV if opp pushes 100%?

[taipan168]

Opp has been playing the bubble very well, shoving basically every hand (even folding to me a couple of times when I was super short so he could keep on pwning the other two stacks), so I am sure he is shoving 100% here.

According to SNGPT, calling if he shoves 100% is -1.1% EV. Why is this? If I was a clear second stack it would be obvious but in this case we're all short.

Poker Stars No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t200/t400 (Ante: t25)
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t1040
Button: t1255
SB: t9335
Hero: t1870

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises all-in t9310</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero calls all-in t1445</font>.

[LordMushroom2]

You ARE clearly the 2nd biggest stack. You are 50% bigger than the 3rd biggest stack.

[Hollandicus]

Your risk here (all of your equity) is far bigger than your potential reward (top of my head a 50% increase in your $ev)... thus you need to be a *big* favourite vs villans range - A10s is 60ish% vs 2 cards.... not enough to balance what you are risking with the smaller stacks around.

Cheers, Mark

[Dirk72]

Your equity before the hand is about 23% (this mean your EV is 23% of the prize pool).
If you fold your equity becomes about 21%.
If you call all-in with ATs and your opp is pushing with 100%, you are a 64% favorite. This mean your equity if you are calling is : 64% * 31% (=equity if you win and double your stack + ante) + 36% * 0% (=equity if you lose and have 0 chips), this results in about 20% calling equity. If you compare this with the folding equity of about 21% (when you fold and only lose the blinds and the ante), you have an edge for about 1% for folding.

In this situation you need minimum 99 before you can call the all-in, based on ICM. (numbers used on this text are rounded and not 100% correct, but close enough to make conclusions)