Simple 3k Foxwoods megastack hand

[HEK]

42'ish left. Top 30 paid.

I have 80k. MP has ~220k.

Blinds 3k/6k 500a.

MP's open range is not huge but wider than almost anyone at the table. He's one of the only aggro players at the table. about 2 rounds ago he raised preflop to 14k (2k/4k blinds) and I shoved for 60k with AK. He took quite awhile before folding and I showed.

MP opens for 20k.

I have 55.

Fold or shove?

[Mench]

fold. hes gonna be getting it too good when it comes back to him to fold.

[illini43]

He'll be getting about 1.88:1 to call when it gets back to him.

Let's say he open raises: 22+,A7s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A9o+,KJo+,QJo,JTo which is ~18% of hands.

Let's say his calling range is 77+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+ which is ~ 6.5% of hands. So about 36% of the time he raises, he will have a hand in the range he will call with.

If you push you will win the pot of 33,000 64% of the time and get called and be a 1.85:1 dog.

When you are called and win you will have:

193,000 chips x .35 = 67550

When he calls and you lose:

80,000 x .65 = -52,000

So you have a net +cEV simply from him calling with this range, plus you throw in the added 21,000 chips you net from the times he folds to your push and this becomes a seemingly obvious push.

My ranges could be way off, but I think even if you adjust his ranges slightly, you would still come out with a large +cEV.

[NoahSD]

Shove. Not really much to say except that you have enough equity against his calling range and enough FE to make shoving much much better than folding here.

[HEK]

I'm in the CO btw.

[Ansky]

eh ok, i guess

[bigbabyjesus]

Gotta push it.

[luckychewy]

looks like w/ 3 to act and his position being earlier than i'd like(his raising range is prob tighter) i don't like it much. obv if u were bb and he was co it would be insta.

[Soulman]

I think this is really, really borderline. Assuming illini's range is correct (and I think it's a bit tighter, but whatever), OP has to push tighter than 99+,AQs+,AKo for this to be correct to fold for him. When you take the large chip disparity into account as well, I doubt you have that much FE. This assumes he's a thinking aggro player and not some spewmonkey.

I don't see your position specified, but if there are 3 left to act that pushes this towards a pretty clear fold.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
Shove. Not really much to say except that you have enough equity against his calling range and enough FE to make shoving much much better than folding here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, also throw in a read that you gave us, and the fact that it's the bubble of a live tourney and he's a lot more likely to fold, I like a shove here. He's not getting that great odds to call at all, and you only have 13 bb.