River decision with middle pair

[BrassMonkey]

Villian is 30/11 over 167 with moderate level of aggression.

What's the best way to play this river?

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.66 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP checks.

River: (6.66 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero?</font>

[fmsr]

He doesn't raise much PF but this time he raised a UTG raiser. You're behind to TT+ and Ax, so I think I c/f.

[Bruce D]

This looks like A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] x[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] where x is greater than 9.

Looks like a bet/call to me. I can't see how he would play any thing like this except maybe 88 or 77. That is to say that his line looks strange if he has 99+.

[shane88888]

I don't see how villain doesn't hold Ax here. TT+ doesn't check the turn, and it's unlikely your UTG open was 3bet by KQs.

If you fire at the river, you're only getting called when you lose.

A river call is getting 7.66:1, but I think you're beat way more often than you're getting bluffed. Plus, villain doesn't fit the profile to fire with air here.

[Oink]

EDIT: Baaah! Ax has a wheel.

I c/f

[shane88888]

[ QUOTE ]
This looks like A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] x[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] where x is greater than 9.

Looks like a bet/call to me. I can't see how he would play any thing like this except maybe 88 or 77. That is to say that his line looks strange if he has 99+.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ax rivered the wheel here.

[Bruce D]

[ QUOTE ]

EDIT: Baaah! Ax has a wheel.

I c/f

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This looks like A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] x[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] where x is greater than 9.

Looks like a bet/call to me. I can't see how he would play any thing like this except maybe 88 or 77. That is to say that his line looks strange if he has 99+.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ax rivered the wheel here.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah.. no wonder I suck at this game.

Seriously though, it's 420 am and I have been up since 1130 am and I am in so need of sleep. Only 3 more hours to go. *sigh*

[inferno]

he could put you on a ace also, maiby he has something like 77 or whatever draw. I like to b/f in this spot

[fmsr]

[ QUOTE ]
he could put you on a ace also, maiby he has something like 77 or whatever draw. I like to b/f in this spot

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't you need a read on villain that he is likely to be b3b-ing the flop with 77 or K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (which, I think, is not the case here) to bet the river?

[Burnsabre]

How is this not a ch/f? You beat like.... 77. You will be beat almost 100 percent when called but I think you will be raised the vast majority of the time. If this was vs a spewmonkey you might ch/call or something but villain seems sane.