(razz) fold 7th?

[RustyBrooks]

Seat 1 and 3 are both reasonably tight for the game we're in (looser than me but by no means actually loose) with reasonable raising standards. Seat 3 actually rarely raises plus he has an 8 showing so all I know *for sure* is that he has a 3 card 8. I would suspect it's decent.

If I could count on Seat 3 to bet if checked to, I'd have gone for a check-raise to knock out Seat 1. My hand doesn't seem good enough to risk it, and he's first to act after me so I consider that he might fold. How bad is it to try to check-raise here if they check behind?

On 5th I figure my hand is a little better on average than the other 2, but not good enough to raise. Wrong?

On 6th I am pretty sure I am toast. I have an 876 vs what might well be an 85 or 84 and maybe another 87 or 86. I figure that I have 10 outs to improve (twos, threes, fives, there is one 2 and one 3 gone) out of 32 cards so I think calling is OK. Heads up I might raise but a) the chance that I'm behind is greater and b) I might make a 76 and still lose vs 2 opponents. I find it hard to believe I should fold here, but maybe I should?

Anyway, I brick 7th and Seat 3 bets... I'm pretty sure I'm beat but the pot is huge. The worst thing is the guy behind me, who if he raises I think I definitely have to fold if it comes around.

Pure simulation seems to indicate that my chances of winning on the river are quote low, maybe around 10%.



Razz ($1/$2), Ante $0.20, Bring-In $0.25 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.40 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___completes___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 7: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (7.65 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (5.33 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 3: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (8.33 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

River - (14.33 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___checks
Seat 3: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___bets
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___???