3 pair, bet river?

[kaby]

6max 2/4 limit

First hand at the table, no datamined/from earlier sessions stats.

MP openraises, folded to hero with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 in BB who calls.

Flop is K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]10[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4SB): Hero checks, MP bets, Hero raises, MP calls.

Turn is 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4BB)

Hero bets, MP calls.

River is T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6BB):

Hero ?



I think the standard play is to c/f here but I did some calcs and it appears I should bet.

I gave him the following range (I think a K or T raises somewhere, as does JJ+). I think most villains take A high to showdown imho but I could be wrong.

99-66,AQs-AJs,A9s-A8s,QJs,J9s,AQo-AJo,A9o

So 50 Ace high combos, 18 pair combos and 8 Q/J high combos.

EV of betting when he calls A high and folds the rest:
(26/76)*6-(50/76)*1=+1.39BB

EV of betting when he only folds pairs:
(18/76)*6-(58/76)*1=+.65BB

So I should bet? Or is my logic/calc/range wrong?

[jba]

i wouldn't count on JJ+ or Tx putting in any more action honestly. especially after that turn.

on the other hand a lot of Ax hands with no club will fold the turn -- this isn't a great spot to call down with ace high.

[sethypooh21]

Without a "SD monkey" read on villain, bet here, you only need to take it down 1/6 of the time, and I would expect a fold roughly twice that often from Qx/Jx/7x or PP<TT type hands.

[sharpie]

I would fold the flop. Your hand has [censored] equity on that board. If you're ahead you have to dodge alot of cards, and you'll often get 3 bet by a draw on the flop and fold the best hand.

Now I've made it this far in a bloated pot I'd fire the river hoping to fold out pocket pairs, although I'm not too optimistic, and it's sort of a tilt bet that I'm not sure is +EV.