Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Sixteen

[Performify]

Season Record Summary:
Game of the Week: 6 - 5 - 4 : +5.04 units
All Straight Picks: 23 - 31 - 5 : (2.71) units
Tease of the Week: 6 - 4 - 0 : +3.80 units

All Public Picks: 29 - 35 - 5 : +1.09 units

Straight Weighted: 68 - 70 : 49.35%
All Weighted: 85 - 82 : 50.96%
GotW Weighted: 32 - 27 : 54.24%

St. Louis -1 (-101) over Washington
The Redskins are being overvalued here by the public for their spoiler win over the Saints last week. While St. Louis has pushed the run game much more this year, they still have a potent passing attack with one of the game's best active wide receivers in Torry "Big Game" Holt. Look for St. Louis to stay run-first, but still put the ball up in the air to Holt and Bruce to exploit the overmatched Redskins secondary. Rams 24, Redskins 17. Game of the Week.

San Francisco -4 (-105) over Arizona
San Fran still amazing have their playoff hopes alive, and will be playing for pride at home. San Fran's powerful offensive line will manhandle Arizona's underpowered defensive line. Standout SF left guard Larry Allen gets to line up against rookie defensive tackle Gabe Watson, who will be overwhelmed by Allen all day, presenting a ton of running room for standout SF RB Frank Gore. The Cardinals' run defense is ranked in the middle of the NFL, giving up 119 yards per game, and has been battling injuries throughout the season. While Arizona would usually try to line up eight men in the box to try to stuff the run game, they can't really afford to do that with their porous secondary. Arizona ranks third to last in the NFL in pass defense and is giving up almost 236 yards passing per game. If they try to stuff the line against Gore, you'll see the renewed 49ers passing attack led by Alex Smith and the surging standout rookie tight end Vernon Davis. 49ers 24, Arizona 17.

Atlanta -6.5 (+102) vs Carolina
The Atlanta Falcons are playing here for their coach's job and for a playoff berth (if they win out they are still alive in the wildcard hunt). The Panthers are reeling, getting demolished last week by the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Panthers have suffered a lot of injuries on the offensive line and will be without their best offensive lineman, LG Mike Wahle, who missed last week's game with a shoulder injury. Look for the Falcons defense to put seven and eight men on the line of scrimmage, including walking up strong safety Lawyer Milloy much of the day. Panthers QB Chris Weinke, who has replaced the injured Jake Delhomme, starts his third consecutive game. Weinke is now 1-16 as an NFL starter and he'll move to 1-17 after Sunday's game. The Falcons dominated the Panthers in Week 1, and I predict a closer game here but still a touchdown win for the Falcons. 24-17 Atlanta.

Tease of the Week: Jets +2.5, Colts -9
Teasing 6.5 points to Jets +9, Colts -2.5. The Colts need to win this game to cruise in to the playoffs, and are still playing for home field advantage in the second round. The Jets game should be a close, hard-fought game and crossing both +3 and +7 there is huge.

Summary of Picks for Week 16: [*] Rams -1 (-101) : 6.06u to win 6u[*] 49ers -4 (-105) : 3.15u to win 3u[*] Falcons -6.5 (+102) : 2.u to win 2.04u[*] Teaser: Jets +9, Colts -2.5 (2-team, 6.5 point teaser @ -120) : 4.8u to win 4u

[Performify]

Forgot the usual disclaimer: as always these are my graduated units, so if you're playing standard 1%-2% of your bankroll unit sizes, cut mine in half (so the plays are 2.5u, 1.5u, 1u, 2u respectively)

[Performify]

Blah. Rams put up big numbers in the air as expected but struggle on defense, need overtime to pull out the win.

49ers turn the ball over twice, and get behind early forcing Gore to be less of a factor.

haven't seen the Falcons game yet, but with a 10-3 final i'm not looking forward to it...

On the positive, game of the week is doing well (as always) with a 38 - 27 @ 58.46% weighted record for +11.04 units on the year.

On the negative, everything else sucks. My teaser picks are slightly negative on the year, and my straight non-game-of-the-week picks are doing pretty poorly: 17 - 28 - 1 (12.90) units

Season results:


Game of the Week: 7 - 5 - 4 +11.04 units
non GotW picks: 17 - 28 - 1 (12.90) units
All Straight Picks: 24 - 33 - 5 (1.86) units
Tease of the Week: 6 - 5 - 0 (1.00) units
All Public Picks: 30 - 38 - 5 (2.86) units


Straight Weighted: 74 - 75 @ 49.74%
All Weighted: 91 - 92 @ 49.78%
GotW Weighted: 38 - 27 @ 58.46%

[Performify]

Adding an xmas day teaser play: Jets +8.5, Cowboys -1.
2-team 6-point teaser at -110. 6.6u to win 6u
(remember, half my units if you're playing 1%-2% of your bankroll)


I have the Jets keeping this game close a high percentage of the time, and perhaps even pulling out the upset. Jets +2.5 is a borderline 1u play in my system, so I love the tease.

Likewise I think the Cowboys win this game enough to make this tease strong even though its not a true wong, even though i think I'd play Philly +7 if I were to pick a side.

[rjp]

Good luck today, Performify. Lady luck hasn't been all that kind to me lately, either.