Firing the Second Barrel (long)

[jrz1972]

I’m going to be taking a break from limit for a while to cut my teeth at NL. Despite frequenting this forum for the past 2 ½ years, I’ve never done a Pooh-Bah or C/T post, so I thought this would be a good time to bang out something substantial.

I want to focus on a problem that frequently vexes newer players. You look at your hand and see big picture cards. It’s folded around to you, and you raise. A couple of players call, but that’s okay because you know most micro-limit villains will call with all sorts of stuff. The flop misses you, but again that’s okay because you know all about continuation bets, so you fire a c-bet out there. Unfortunately, one villain calls. The turn is a brick, and now you have to decide how to continue on the turn. Should you fire the second barrel?

It’s not a bad idea to start at the very beginning and consider why this is a touchy problem, even if it’s a little obvious. Deciding whether to fire a second barrel on the turn or not is close because there are two main possibilities for what is going on when villain calls your flop bet:

1. Villain is drawing. Micro-limit games are chock-full of players who will peel the flop unbelievably light, but who will give up when the bet size doubles. The problem when you have whiffed overcards or somesuch is that even when you’re ahead, villain often has as many as 10 outs on the turn, and it would be correct for him to call your turn bet if he knew what you had. For example, if villain holds Js Tc on a Kc 9d 4d 2h board, he actually has 10 outs against your As Qs. He’ll normally fold to a bet because he has to fear he’s drawing to only his gutshot, but the point is that his fold is a mistake according to the Fundamental Theorem of Poker. If he knew you had whiffed overs, he should call with his 10-outer. In fact, he should often call with just a 6-outer i.e. any two cards that don’t match cards in your hand. And as we know, when villains make mistakes, we win. So in this sort of scenario, we definitely want to bet the turn to push villain into a bad fold. Note that if villain decides to call, all is not lost since we’ll sometimes win at showdown with our UI A-high. In that case firing the second barrel really just amounts to a value-bet, even if we didn’t know that at the time.

2. Villain has a made hand that he’s not folding. Micro-limit games are also chock-full of villains who call preflop raises, flop bottom pair, and then automatically call down no matter what. In that case, we don’t want to bet the turn, obviously. We would rather get a free card than bet villain’s hand for him.

In case (1) we want to bet the turn. In case (2), we don’t. Our job is to try to use our skills at reading the board and reading our opponents to try to make an educated guess of where we are.

So suppose we bet the turn. When we c-bet the turn, we are obviously rooting for villain to fold, so we know what a “good” result is. What is a “bad” result? Bad results come in two flavors:

1. Villain calls. This is bad because it means we’re either behind, or villain has made a “correct” decision to pursue his draw. Depending on our position and the likelihood that villain is drawing, this may not be terrible, but it isn’t usually what we want to see.

2. Villain raises or checkraises. On one hand, this is bad for the same reason (1) is bad; we’re out 1 bb. Where this is really bad is when we have a hand with enough outs that we’re forced to call the raise. This is a point that’s worth repeating because even many intermediate players completely misunderstand it. When you c-bet the turn with a good draw and get raised, it is a disaster.

Many players don’t get this concept. They raise preflop, flop the nut flush draw, and fire away on the flop (correctly). They then continue on the turn, get checkraised by their single opponent, and figure “Oh well I have so many outs I don’t mind getting raised.” This is wrong, because villain has played optimally against your hand. You lose according to the Fundamental Theorem of Poker.

To see this more concretely, put yourself in villain’s seat. You see that annoying-yet-sexy TAG open-raise in the CO, and you call in the BB with 6d 6c. The flop is Ks 7s 6h, giving you bottom set. Now suppose I told you that the TAG had As 2s and would keep betting until he got raised. It should be obvious that your optimal play is to c/c the flop and c/r the non-spade turn. This charges the TAG the maximum to pursue his draw. When villain plays optimally against the TAG, the TAG has lost Sklansky dollars, and villain has won Sklansky dollars. In short, getting check-raised on this board is the worst possible outcome of the hand for our Hero, unless of course he rivers the flush. He has paid 2bbs to see a river that he could have seen for free.

When we c-bet the turn, getting called is generally not good, and getting raised is definitely bad, particularly if we are forced to pay off the raise. When we decide whether to c-bet the turn, we will want to make a reasoned calculation of how likely it is that either of these outcomes will occur.

Now that we know what we’re trying to accomplish and what we’re trying to avoid, let’s look at some example hands. (Disclaimer: I do not claim to be God’s gift to the poker world, and I am sure that if some of these example hands were posted as stand-alone hands for evaluation, some of them would generate debate. Firing the second barrel is often a ticklish decision that’s highly opponent-dependent. I just want to present some hands where I think various factors weigh heavily in one direction or the other, not claim that my judgement is infallible). In all of these cases, assume that villain has raised preflop, c-bet the flop, and where applicable has been checked to on the turn by a single opponent.

We’ll first consider hands where Hero has position.

HAND 1:
Hero’s hand: As Ks in position.
Villain: a known TAG.
Hero open-raises from MP and is called only by villain in the BB.
Flop: Qh 7d 5s
Turn: 2d

This is a good example of a hand that should not be c-bet on the turn. TAGs generally don’t call uber-dry flops just for the hell of it; villain will have some sort of a made hand a large majority of the time. It is fairly clear that Hero should pass on a c-bet and take the free card if offered. Note that Hero is getting checkraised unusually often here if he bets. Granted, we have an easy fold to a c/r, but we forfeit the chance to suck out for free by c-betting.

If you want an even stronger example of when not to c-bet the turn against a TAG, change Hero’s hand to Ks Qs and change the board to Ah 7d 5s 2d.

HAND 2:
Hero’s hand: As Ks in position.
Villain: a known LPP.
Hero open-raises from MP and is called only by villain in the BB.
Flop: Qh 7d 5s
Turn: 2d

Bet that turn! This is the exact same hand as Hand 1, except we replaced the TAG villain with Fishy McFish, who loves to peel flops with all sorts of garbage. Hero frequently has the best hand. This is exactly the sort of situation where we don’t absolutely hate getting called. As soon as the flop hits, you should order up your “bet, bet, check behind” line against this sort of opponent. If our LPP villain musters the nerve to checkraise, we have a super-easy fold, so that’s no big disaster.

HAND 3:
Hero’s hand: As Ks in position.
Villain: a known LPP.
Hero open-raises from MP and is called only by villain in the BB.
Flop: 9h 8h 2c
Turn: 2d

Again, this is a good time to show villain our second barrel. This board is draw-heavy, and just because villain called us on the flop doesn’t mean we’re beaten. Betting the turn with the intention of checking down on the river UI should be standard on this board against this villain. Note that LPPs don’t checkraise-semibluff with open-enders or flush draws, so we can fold with confidence if we get popped.

HAND 4:
Hero’s hand: Ks Qs in position.
Villain: a known LPP.
Hero open-raises from MP and is called only by villain in the BB.
Flop: Js 8h 7c
Turn: 2s

This one is debatable, but betting should at least receive strong consideration. Even LPPs will fold A-high, gutshots, etc. when a double-sized turn bet comes out. Getting checkraised would suck because we have to pay it off, but LPP’s don’t check-raise very often. I would take the free card against tricky or aggressive opponents.

HAND 5:
Hero’s hand: As Ks in position.
Villain: a known tricky LAG.
Hero open-raises from MP and is called only by villain in the BB.
Flop: Js 7c 2c
Turn: 6c

Firing the second barrel on this turn against this opponent is a mistake. Tricky players, especially LAGs, love to bluff- and semibluff-checkraise preflop raisers on this sort of board. They will sometimes have total air, but they’ll often have something like Ac 8h or 5h 4h which just picked up a flush draw and an oesd respectively. I don’t know about you, but I hate folding overcards in this situation. Obviously we have to fold if we get check-raised. Consistently calling turn check-raises with whiffed overs is a great way to drain your bankroll. But we’re getting pushed off the best hand much more often than we’d like if we c-bet this one.

This is where the turn “value check” comes into its own. Tricky LAGs are the perfect target for this line. When we check behind on the turn, most LAGs will feel morally obliged to bluff any river card no matter what they hold. We call, of course. This line involves us putting 1 bb in the pot, just like betting the turn and checking down on the river does, but it has the advantage of guaranteeing that we get to showdown with a hand that compares decently to the LAG’s range. Be sure you understand why this line sucks against LPPs but is gold against LAGs. LPP’s don’t bluff-checkraise, and it’s hard to induce river bluffs off them. LAG’s have all sorts of tricky checkraises in their playbook, and it’s easy to induce bluffs off them. Save the “value check” line for LAGs. Just keep pounding on the fish.

Now lets suppose that Hero is out of position. Being out of position sucks, especially when you’re HU and face a close turn decision. In some ways, though, this makes our decision a little easier because we no longer have the option to take a free card. If we check, we are basically giving up on our hand. When we raise preflop, bet the flop, and check the turn, even the most dimwitted villains are capable of figuring out what’s going on and sticking a bet in against our obvious overcards. (This is why the screwplay is so cool when it works). Since lines that involve checking behind are now out of the picture, it often comes down to b/f and c/f, with the occasional c/c and b/c (ugh) mixed in.

HAND 6:
Hero’s hand: Ks Qs out of position.
Villain: not a complete idiot.
Hero open-raises from MP and is called only by villain on the button.
Flop: As 7c 2d
Turn: 6c

Against most opponents, this is a clear c/f. We took our shot on the flop, and villain says he’s not scared of the ace that we’re supposed to have but don’t. That said, there are villains out there who peel A-high flops with air and then fold the turn to continued aggression. It sincerely bothers me that such a person’s vote counts the same as mine on election day. Against these opponents I will fire again on the turn, but I need a definite read to do this.

HAND 7:
Hero’s hand: As Ks out of position.
Villain: a known LPP.
Hero open-raises from MP and is called only by villain on the button.
Flop: Th 8d 3c
Turn: 8c

This is a turn c-bet. LPPs like to call flops like this with junk, but they’re less inclined to call the turn with said junk. They also like to give free showdowns when we check the river. If the LPP raises, you know where the fold key is located. As turn decisions go, this one is pretty easy.

HAND 8:
Hero’s hand: Qs Js out of position.
Villain: an unknown.
Hero open-raises from MP and is called only by villain on the button.
Flop: 8s 7h 2c
Turn: Ks

This hand is a clear c-bet for two reasons. First of all, the turn card is a scare card for villain. He often has the “fold to any bet” box clicked as soon as that K hits the felt. So our fold equity just spiked. Furthermore, we’re going to call a bet anyway, so betting and getting called costs us absolutely nothing. Even getting raised isn’t so bad because it really only costs us one bet instead of two (since we were going to have to pay one bet to see the river no matter what). The “bad” results from c-betting are no longer so bad in this case, so we might as well leverage our fold equity with a bet. Use that scare card!

This has been a long post. Hopefully it has given you something to think about, even if that something is just tl;dr.