Professional No-Limit Hold 'em Study Group Day 1

[Matt Flynn]

Hi everyone welcome to the study group. We're starting with any and all questions on Odds and Outs or Bet Sizing, the first two chapters in PNL1.

Fire away!


Some thoughts:

1. Implied odds are what count. Always consider what you might win or lose if you hit your hand, or if your opponent hits his.

2. Poker players tend to be optimistic about their implied odds. So be cautious. Consider whether you're discounting your outs enough, and also whether you really are going to get half of your opponent's stack on average when you hit your flush.

3. Bet sizing is an art form and not something you can learn overnight.

4. A thought experiment: suppose you had to play online poker exclusively and the only bet you could make was a fixed percentage of the pot. They offer you a "bet pot" button with no slider to adjust, but you can change "bet pot" to any size. What would you choose?

I would choose 2/3 the pot or perhaps slightly more, like 70% of the pot. 2/3 is an excellent all-purpose bet size. It's also rarely THE best bet size. Rather, it's a good compromise.

5. Continuation bets can be small, but if you use a small cbet like 1/3 or 1/2 the pot you had better be making that same bet size with at least some of your bigger hands. Otherwise an astute opponent will eat you alive. This is a major and common weakness seen in live $1-$2 games. A tight player makes a big raise preflop then makes a small bet postflop, say $10 into a $30 pot. When that happens, first look around to see if anyone else in the pot looks interested. If not, seriously consider making a 2/3 pot raise or similar. If your opponent plays back at you after such a weak cbet, he's less of a mark and should get more respect later on.

By the same token, when you make small cbets and face a couple decent opponents mixed in with the weak ones, you often want to play all hands that way when in pots against the better opponents so you can sucker them in. However, when you end up in pots against the weak ones, just make bigger bets with your big hands until they fight back against your smaller cbets when you miss.

The trick is to exploit them as much as they'll let you. Against very bad opponents that are commonly found in low-limit live games and the lowest online limits, you can get away with this stuff and should take advantage.