The river bluff-raise

[stealthmunk]

seems pretty terrible to me.
I really hope villain called with 9x/10x so I'm even more right.

[RobertJohn]

He has to fold greater than 48% of the time which probably makes it close. There are some competing thoughts that came to mind that have already been mentioned:

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[the move] seems pretty logical to me after that river card and his weak bet.

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This river seems like a great card for your range given your flop check; also, after he bet the turn, his small river lead OOP does seem like some sort of blocking bet with a weak made hand

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You're getting called a lot by a thinking player. You're line looks too much like some sort of busted draw or weak hand or air

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I can't imagine you raising one pair for value that often on the river much but you might. Basically your range here is either a straight or air and I think because of this you will get looked up light fairly often.

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Basically the question comes down to how often does Villain have a weak made hand (JT,88,A9) and how frequently does he pay off a river raise with those hands, how often is he following through on a turn bluff or semi-bluff (w/ like A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or QJ or air), and how often does he have any other hand that will pay off a river raise.

I think your river bluff-raise size is nice in that it’s big enough and the board is such that you are representing a pretty strong range (like AK at least, most of the time) and it will make him think twice about calling off with a Ten or worse since it appears you are willing to commit yourself.

[Crispy]

Hmmmmm. I think if the play went bet call/ check check, then bet raise. Your hand would be a lot more believable. I dunno if you really ever call the turn with AK, maybe with some history like if he was laggy. If the villan isnt paying attention etc, then I like this line a lot.

[yaaaflow]

I don't know if you're repping a big enough hand here. I suspect you'd bet an open ended draw on the flop or put in more money on the flop/turn with a set/two pair. I don't find many lags get to the river with a huge hand here in this way and I think a good opponent (or a calling station) will find it suspicious enough to look you up lightly. If he doesn't know you or he's a tag on auto-pilot you'll probably put him off most hands here.

[THEOSU]

nath,

i think the river bluff raise SHOULD be a very powerful weapon.

but then i get called by like 77 here waaaaaaaaaaay too often, and am amazed at how people just say "wtf he like never has a king here i call lol i was right he was bluffing omg i'm awesome look at my stack" so i kinda decided to tone that jazz down. still, it's goddamn sexy when it works.

[NoahSD]

That small bet on that river is like always a hand that beats you that folds to a raise. I'm wondering if like 2500 has enough more FE to make it worth it, but I definitely like the raise regardless.

[jon_1van]

Did you consider raising the turn to protect your hand from possible high cards (which are played more often vs button raises). You also maaay fold a few 89 type hands.

It looks like you're deep enough to raise/fold the turn.


This was my immediate thought, but calling seems fine too if you think your opponent is more likely to play a small pot.