50NL: I almost always fold my overpair to this turn heat

[Chomp]

Villain 26/16/1, 150 hands.
Hero 19/17, standard TAG, but particularly active last couple of orbits due to nice run of cards.

Stove tells me our equity against 2p and set hands is 14%, but I don't know if we can narrow his range to that.

Fwiw, I'd usually go a touch more on flop, not sure it makes much difference here.


Thanks.

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$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (<font color="#0000cc">$63.40</font>)
UTG 1 (<font color="#0000cc">$50.00</font>)
CO (<font color="#0000cc">$50.00</font>)
BTN (<font color="#0000cc">$50.40</font>)
SB (<font color="#0000cc">$57.80</font>)
BB (<font color="#0000cc">$73.69</font>)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is UTG A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#777777">4 folds</font>, BB calls $1.5

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($4.25, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $3.15</font>, BB calls $3.15

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($10.55, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $7.75</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $19.5</font>, Hero...