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  #1  
Old 11-29-2007, 08:25 PM
GeeBeeQED GeeBeeQED is offline
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Default Which draw is superior?

I've never posted a question of my own and this just occured to me.

Lets presume cash game, deep stacks 4xbb raise preflop called by X number of players. I'm curios as to your responses and also how the number of players may alter the opinions.

With a flop of K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

It's a 2/3 pot bet to you

Which draw is superior A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Or J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]?

Dave
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  #2  
Old 11-29-2007, 08:30 PM
bordeel bordeel is offline
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Default Re: Which draw is superior?

pokerstove has the answer .. first hand is 74,8% favourite over a random hand , the second one slightly less , around 73% over a random hand .
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  #3  
Old 11-30-2007, 12:57 AM
JABoyd JABoyd is offline
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Default Re: Which draw is superior?

Here is a pretty good breakdown of why A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is a superior drawing hand...

FLOP: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

HAND 1: A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
OUTS:
9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s (gives you the nuts, FLUSH)
3 As (pairs your A, may give villan a straight if he has J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])
3 Js (pairs your J, may give villan a straight if he has A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])
3 10s (gives you the nuts, STRAIGHT)
18 TOTAL OUTS (12 CLEAN OUTS FOR THE NUTS)

HAND 2: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
OUTS:
9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s (gives you a flush, may give villan the nuts if he has A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])
3 Js (pairs your J, may give villan a straight if he has A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])
3 10s (pairs your 10, may give villan a straight if he has A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])
3 As (gives you the nuts, STRAIGHT, not the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])
3 9s (gives you the nuts, STRAIGHT, not the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])
21 TOTAL OUTS (6 CLEAN OUTS FOR THE NUTS)

THEREFORE: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] gives you more outs to draw to a hand which does not have a 100% shot at holding up while A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] has a much better chance of drawing to a hand that will hold up. And against more and more opponents there is an even better chance that villan(s) will infact have one of those hands that will put him in the lead.
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  #4  
Old 11-30-2007, 01:26 AM
ShaneP ShaneP is offline
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Default Re: Which draw is superior?

[ QUOTE ]
Here is a pretty good breakdown of why A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is a superior drawing hand...

FLOP: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

HAND 1: A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
OUTS:
9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s (gives you the nuts, FLUSH)
3 As (pairs your A, may give villan a straight if he has J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])
3 Js (pairs your J, may give villan a straight if he has A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])
3 10s (gives you the nuts, STRAIGHT)
18 TOTAL OUTS (12 CLEAN OUTS FOR THE NUTS)

HAND 2: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
OUTS:
9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s (gives you a flush, may give villan the nuts if he has A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])
3 Js (pairs your J, may give villan a straight if he has A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])
3 10s (pairs your 10, may give villan a straight if he has A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])
3 As (gives you the nuts, STRAIGHT, not the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])
3 9s (gives you the nuts, STRAIGHT, not the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])
21 TOTAL OUTS (6 CLEAN OUTS FOR THE NUTS)

THEREFORE: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] gives you more outs to draw to a hand which does not have a 100% shot at holding up while A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] has a much better chance of drawing to a hand that will hold up. And against more and more opponents there is an even better chance that villan(s) will infact have one of those hands that will put him in the lead.

[/ QUOTE ]


You've miscounted slightly there...of the 9 hearts, two will give you the nuts, the A and 9. So that's 8 clean outs for the nuts. So it's at least a bit closer...3 more 'outs', but two less to the nuts.
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  #5  
Old 11-30-2007, 03:15 AM
JABoyd JABoyd is offline
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Default Re: Which draw is superior?

CORRECTION...

Here is a pretty good breakdown of why A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is a superior drawing hand...

FLOP: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

HAND 1: A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
OUTS:
9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s (gives you the nuts, FLUSH)
3 As (pairs your A, may give villan a straight if he has J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])
3 Js (pairs your J, may give villan a straight if he has A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])
1 10 (10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] gives you the nuts, STRAIGHT FLUSH)
2 10s (gives you the nuts, STRAIGHT)
18 TOTAL OUTS (12 CLEAN OUTS FOR THE NUTS)

HAND 2: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
OUTS:
7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s (gives you a flush, may give villan the nuts if he has A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])
2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s (A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] give you the nuts, STRAIGHT FLUSH)
3 Js (pairs your J, may give villan a straight if he has A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])
3 10s (pairs your 10, may give villan a straight if he has A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])
3 As (gives you the nuts, STRAIGHT, not the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])
3 9s (gives you the nuts, STRAIGHT, not the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])
21 TOTAL OUTS (8 CLEAN OUTS FOR THE NUTS)

THEREFORE: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] gives you more outs to draw to a hand which does not have a 100% shot at holding up while A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] has a much better chance of drawing to a hand that will hold up. And against more and more opponents there is an even better chance that villan(s) will infact have one of those hands that will put him in the lead.
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  #6  
Old 11-30-2007, 09:48 AM
GeeBeeQED GeeBeeQED is offline
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Default Re: Which draw is superior?

Obviously any of us would take either hand. It is very close indeed. Intuitively I could not decide. The breakdown is fantastic.

Bordeel (or any), What if we adjust the calling range from random to any pair, suited connectors 9T and above, any T-Face or better. 2 villians see the flop and call our hero's turn bet.

I don't own poker stove yet so I'm unaware if this is possible to run or not. I can see I need to obtain it. It sounds like one of those fundamental "toothbrush" tools of poker study.

I appears that the high card/nut draw value of the AJ hand outweighs the greater straight outs of the good but non-nut straight/flush JT hand. Really this was my initial curiosity.

I'm not aiming at a protracted discussion of correct calling ranges which might go on endlessly, just curious how drastic the percentages change when we refine to a more normal cash game calling range.

Thank you
Dave
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  #7  
Old 11-30-2007, 10:02 AM
GeeBeeQED GeeBeeQED is offline
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Default Re: Which draw is superior?

Tonight, I plan to post what I think is optimum play with a hand like this. I'm not stuck on any one approach here but I am starting to grow an opinion in one direction. I'll be very curious how you anylize my opinion and no offence will be taken either way. To me the subject seems highly debatable and I wouldn't fault several approaches. In the interest of getting the responders in this thread to offer further remarks I mention it here. Lets save the correct play discussion for the next thread please.
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  #8  
Old 11-30-2007, 10:27 AM
jukofyork jukofyork is offline
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Location: Leeds, UK.
Posts: 2,551
Default Re: Which draw is superior?

[ QUOTE ]
I don't own poker stove yet so I'm unaware if this is possible to run or not. I can see I need to obtain it. It sounds like one of those fundamental "toothbrush" tools of poker study.

[/ QUOTE ]
PokerStove is 100% free, you can get it here:

http://www.pokerstove.com/

Juk [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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  #9  
Old 11-30-2007, 11:21 AM
BrianBigNFun BrianBigNFun is offline
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Default Re: Which draw is superior?

[ QUOTE ]

HAND 2: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
OUTS:
9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s (gives you a flush, may give villan the nuts if he has A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])

[/ QUOTE ]

ummm....? fouled deck?
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  #10  
Old 11-30-2007, 01:54 PM
Ray Zee Ray Zee is offline
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Default Re: Which draw is superior?

with j,10, the only way you get to play a big pot having much the best hand is to turn a straight and the opponent has the same one and you redraw to a flush.
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