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View Poll Results: Who should I replace Ronnie Brown with?
DeAngelo Williams 5 41.67%
Brandon Jacobs 4 33.33%
Samkon Gado 0 0%
Sammy Morris 3 25.00%
Voters: 12. You may not vote on this poll

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  #21  
Old 11-29-2007, 03:31 PM
Jimbo Jimbo is offline
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Default Re: A rag or 98o?

[ QUOTE ]
First of all, too many nits play tight and get blinded away waiting for big pairs, until their M is less than 5 and they jam the first ace-x they see.

[/ QUOTE ]

No they really won't, nits are generally winners you know? Just not maximizing their profits, perhaps you are thinking of another term.

Jimbo
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  #22  
Old 11-29-2007, 04:09 PM
Bone_Daddy Bone_Daddy is offline
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Default Re: A rag or 98o?

dim wits?
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  #23  
Old 11-29-2007, 04:21 PM
Jimbo Jimbo is offline
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Default Re: A rag or 98o?

[ QUOTE ]
dim wits?

[/ QUOTE ]


LOL, I like it!! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Jimbo
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  #24  
Old 11-29-2007, 06:37 PM
Gonso Gonso is offline
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Default Re: A rag or 98o?

[ QUOTE ]
But letís look at a more reasonable calling range, assume stacks are more even. Drop all face cards other than pairs 55+ and Ace Ė 10. Without more info, canít assume jt-kq is standard calling ranges late in a tournament.
98s, 87s, 76s, 98o, 87o, 76o drops to 31.999%
BUT A2 Ė A7 drop to 27.967%, a 14% fall off

We are splitting hairs and can run a million scenarios, but your sanctimonious opinion that ace rag is a much better doesnít pass muster.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are all kinds of problems with your work here. Instead of being so hardheaded, take a second to consider what the other posters are trying to help you with.

First, your ranges aren't very realistic. In high blind spots some of those hands you eliminated from their range are going to be reasonable if not easy calls in a lot of situations. You think a short or large stack can't call a shortstack's shove with KQ?

Second, you haven't accounted for the fact that if you tighten your opponent's calling range, they aren't calling you as often (which means that you're picking up more pots uncontested). So, while they may have much more equity when they do call you, that will occur a smaller percentage of the time. I mean you could make their calling range AA only if you wanted to, and you'll be crushed when they call, but that will be so infrequently it will be rediculously +EV to push any ace against them. In fact, HU with an M of 5 you could push any 2.

Again, the j/f tables are a good start, and if you want to do some range calcs try out SNGPT, which is decent if you can estimate calling ranges and are up against several opponents. Just Pokerstoving range vs. range doesn't account for how often your opponent(s) will fold, and FE is pretty much the dominant consideration here.
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  #25  
Old 11-29-2007, 07:01 PM
GeeBeeQED GeeBeeQED is offline
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Default Re: A rag or 98o?

Phzon, I'm not stubornly attached to this idea. Perhaps you misundstand. In fact I enjoy the first part of your responce showing the percentages (I presume) against my suggested calling range. You've got me thinking and that is why I participate here.

I clearly state the the if-then situation and say "folded" to me. That's not early pos, I'm eluding to mid to late with that remark.

I was not suggesting letting oneself get to an M of 3 was part of any strategy that should be employed. How you got there has little bearing on this question that I can figure out. I was just describing a hypathetical condition where I fugure the calling range for my opponents will be very wide. Yes that is how I'd play it there with an M of 3. Put that in your notes. However, the purpose of my post was not to venture off into end game commentary. I think that widens the discussion beyond the OP. Just setting the scene.

With respect,
Dave
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  #26  
Old 11-29-2007, 08:24 PM
the_sergeant the_sergeant is offline
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Default Re: A rag or 98o?

The problem in pushing with A,rag is that if someone wakes us with a better ace they're gonna call you...now you're dominated. Whereas you push with 9,8 suited you more than likely have live cards with flush and straight possiblities.
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  #27  
Old 11-29-2007, 08:28 PM
GeeBeeQED GeeBeeQED is offline
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Default Re: A rag or 98o?

If I understand Phzon's argument he's saying you get called often enough with less than Ace high hands that your equity is better with A7 than 98o.

Gonso says you can't use pokerstove to arrive at this conclusion because you can't take into acount folds.

I don't know but I am very interested. I lean towards 89o myself.

Dave
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  #28  
Old 11-29-2007, 08:48 PM
Gonso Gonso is offline
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Default Re: A rag or 98o?

[ QUOTE ]
Gonso says you can't use pokerstove to arrive at this conclusion because you can't take into acount folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not quite what I said.

You can use Pokerstove to calculate your equity against a given range, but you must also account for the times you aren't called. For example, say it's folded to you on the SB and you push with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Then let's say that the BB will call you with the top 15% of hands according to Pokerstove.

Okay, your hand in this case will be about a 57-43 dog when called. However, since you will be called only 15% of the time, the other 85% percent of the time you simply take his BB and whatever antes are out there. This adds to the expectation of you shove, how much only depends on the amount of the antes, blinds, and stacks. If you just go by pokerstove range calcs alone, how do you account for all the free money you get when he folds?

Let's say in this case, you have t4k chips at a 9-handed table, and the BB has you covered. The blinds are 300/600 with 100 antes. After posting, you have t4600 left and the pot is t1,800. Now, if you have that A7s and shove (and he calls with that range above), 85% of the time you simply take in an t1,800 pot. When you are called, you'll have 43% equity in that t10,900 pot (on average), which is hardly a bad spot considering all the money already in the pot and your shortstack situation.

I'm harping on SNGPT here because it's a better tool for the job. You can put in ranges and it will account for the times they can't call, and the value of the blinds and antes. It will give you the EV of jamming various hands against various ranges and various opponents.

And phzon can speak for himself but it sounded like he was referring to card removal effects. That is, if you HAVE an ace, there are only three aces left for your opponents to have. So, you'll run into AK or AJ or whatever less often when you shove with A7.
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  #29  
Old 11-29-2007, 09:41 PM
Gonso Gonso is offline
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Default Re: A rag or 98o?

[ QUOTE ]
The problem in pushing with A,rag is that if someone wakes us with a better ace they're gonna call you...now you're dominated. Whereas you push with 9,8 suited you more than likely have live cards with flush and straight possiblities.

[/ QUOTE ]

Being dominated sucks, but you have to consider the whole range and not just the better aces that will call you. AK and AQ are very much dominated by AA too, but that doesn't make it less playable than 98s in a jam/fold spot against a reasonable range of hands (that is, not just AA). Also, what happens when your 98 gets called by 99 or 88, or A9? That's part of a range that will call you and you're awfully dominated there.

There's a typo in my last post... you started with t5,100 chips, not t4,000. It's not really a big deal in the example but I know some nit's going to show up and remind me that I can't count.

But again, these are things you can calculate if you're able to put opponents on ranges (IF you can do it correctly), so it's not really a subjective thing as to which hand is better to push in a given scenario.
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  #30  
Old 11-29-2007, 11:07 PM
pzhon pzhon is offline
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Default Re: A rag or 98o?

[ QUOTE ]
let's say that the BB will call you with the top 15% of hands according to Pokerstove.
... since you will be called only 15% of the time, the other 85% percent of the time you simply take his BB and whatever antes are out there.


[/ QUOTE ]
One of the points I made, in the discussion of "The Myth of Suited Connectors" and here, is that when your opponent calls with his top 15%, you get called less than 15% of the time when you have A7o, and more than 15% of the time when you push with 98o.

Since we were comparing A7o with 98o elsewhere in this thread, I'll analyze those, although it only has a tiny effect on the numebr of combinations, that there are 2 A7s combinations when you have A7o instead of 3 when you have A7s.

I'll use the PokerStove top 15.1% range, which is
77+ (48),
A7s+ (28),
K9s+ (16),
QTs+ (8),
JTs (4),
ATo+ (48),
KTo+ (36),
QJo (12).
That totals 200 out of 1326, or 15.1%.

When you have A7o,
77+ (42),
A7s+ (20),
K9s+ (16),
QTs+ (8),
JTs (4),
ATo+ (36),
KTo+ (36),
QJo (12).
That totals 174 out of 1225, or 14.2%.

When you have 98o,
77+ (42),
A7s+ (26),
K9s+ (15),
QTs+ (8),
JTs (4),
ATo+ (48),
KTo+ (36),
QJo (12).
That is 191 out of 1225, 15.6%.

So, in this case having A7o blocks about 9% of the calls you would get holding 98o.

Let's suppose you open-push from the SB with 10 big blinds against someone who covers you and who (mistakenly) uses this range to call in the BB. As a baseline, I'll use folding, so winning the blinds gains 1.5 BB, and having x% equity after getting called is worth -9.5BB + x% * 20 BB.

A7o is uncalled 85.8% of the time, and has 39.99% equity 14.2% of the time. That averages a gain of 1.07 BB. You get back your small blind and 57% of the big blind. You get knocked out 8.2% of the time when you push.

98o is uncalled 84.4% of the time, and has 32.45% equity 15.6% of the time. That averages a gain of 0.796 BB. You get back your small blind and 30% of the big blind. You get knocked out 10.5% of the time when you push.

Against someone who will fold that often, both hands are clear pushes, but you should much prefer having A7o.

Will this stop people from favoring 98o over A7o? No. Fools will defend to the death something they heard someone say in a bar once or that some celebrity babbled when a mathematician explains why it isn't so. Some people insist JTs is better than AA--look at how many more outs it has--even though AA doesn't need outs, and is about 10 times as profitable.
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