Two Plus Two Newer Archives Does anybody calculate the odds of a player getting dealt a card?
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#1
11-23-2007, 01:20 AM
 NoodlesMcintosh Junior Member Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 8
Does anybody calculate the odds of a player getting dealt a card?

For example, if there was a situation where if a player had a particular card, they would win the hand. And if they didn't have that card, you would win the hand. So when calculating odds to call would you take that into account? Sorry if that was confusing but here's an example.

Board reads : 10d, Jc, Kc, Qh, 2c

And you have 9d, 5h, and are up against one player who's all in for 3000, which makes the pot 5000.

You have the 2nd nuts, but if he has an A he takes the pot. Right now you have 3:5 pot odds. And the odds of him getting dealt an A is 2:13. The odds are in your favor to call mathematically are they not?

This just came to me for some reason and I'm wondering what your thoughts are on it.
#2
11-23-2007, 04:20 AM
 Pot Odds RAC Member Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 71
Re: Does anybody calculate the odds of a player getting dealt a card?

"Pot Odds" is useless as a standalone concept. To claim to be "getting Pot Odds" to make any action makes no sense until you compare the ratio to your chances of winning the hand.
#3
11-23-2007, 04:51 AM
 plexiq Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Vienna Posts: 138
Re: Does anybody calculate the odds of a player getting dealt a card?

[ QUOTE ]
You have the 2nd nuts, but if he has an A he takes the pot. Right now you have 3:5 pot odds. And the odds of him getting dealt an A is 2:13. The odds are in your favor to call mathematically are they not?

[/ QUOTE ]

The odds of him having an Ace, given the observed action in this hand, are much higher than the original odds of him being dealt an ace. (That is, unless this particular opponent will enter every single pot, and get it in with ATC on this board.)

Much more interesting things to think about:
Fraction of his limp/raise-range that includes at least one ace?
What part of his range will he play postflop in the way he did, and what fraction of this "sub-range" includes an Ace?
#4
11-23-2007, 01:28 PM
 GeeBeeQED Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 109
Re: Does anybody calculate the odds of a player getting dealt a card?

You are correct, the cards are delt out randomly. But the key concept here is the player chooses to play the hand or not. Once he has choosen to play the hand, the cards are no longer random. Once the player looks at his hand and takes any action (even mucking) his cards are no longer random. You can (with knowledge of the players habits and skill level) begin to narrow down his holdings. With each subsequent action you can begin to further refine and narow down his likely holdings. Occasionally you can tell him his exact two cards.

A simple example. The chance of being delt 7h-2d are exactly the same as being delt Ah-Ks.

If a player folds preflop in an unraised pot you can be 100% certain he did not hold Ah-Ks.

These kinds of examples can be continued adnausium.
#5
11-23-2007, 08:13 PM
 Small Fry Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Livermore, CA Posts: 761
Re: Does anybody calculate the odds of a player getting dealt a card?

[ QUOTE ]
For example, if there was a situation where if a player had a particular card, they would win the hand. And if they didn't have that card, you would win the hand. So when calculating odds to call would you take that into account? Sorry if that was confusing but here's an example.

Board reads : 10d, Jc, Kc, Qh, 2c

And you have 9d, 5h, and are up against one player who's all in for 3000, which makes the pot 5000.

You have the 2nd nuts, but if he has an A he takes the pot. Right now you have 3:5 pot odds. And the odds of him getting dealt an A is 2:13. The odds are in your favor to call mathematically are they not?

This just came to me for some reason and I'm wondering what your thoughts are on it.

[/ QUOTE ]

On that board you have about the 10th nut, not the 2nd. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
#6
11-25-2007, 11:21 PM
 angry hobo Junior Member Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 13
Re: Does anybody calculate the odds of a player getting dealt a card?

when the pot is 5k and the bet to call is 3k, your not getting 3 to 5 odds. your getting 5:3. and based on the action, you decide whether he has an ace or 2 clubs, it is not a random chance.

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