Flopped trips facing turn bet

True North · #1 08-21-2006, 09:03 PM

Just checking my thought process on this hand.

Second hour of a $5 rebuy. Table has been pretty loose-passive preflop, less so after the flop but still somewhat fishy. Villain seems fairly solid. I've been pretty cold-decked up to this point at this table.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 (t19115)
MP3 (t12360)
Hero (t9510)
Button (t8555)
SB (t18401)
BB (t5955)
UTG (t8724)
UTG+1 (t7725)
MP1 (t15955)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls t200, 1 fold, MP1 calls t200, MP2 calls t200, 1 fold, Hero calls t200, Button calls t200, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t1500) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets t800, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls t800.

Turn: (t3100) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets t1800, Hero calls t1800.

River: (t6700) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: t6700

Flop - I bet to chase out draws and bring along any tens that might want to call.

Turn - Pretty harmless card, which led me to suspect a nine, probably with a better kicker since he seemed solid. He also could have been betting a ten hoping I was bluffing, but I thought this was less likely. But, it's likely enough that I can't fold yet.

River - I was doubtful he would call with a ten, unless he had JT. He would certainly call with a nine, and may be afraid I made a boat and would be content to take down the pot as it stands now. So, given that and my suspicions on his turn bet, I checked behind.

Thoughts? Anyone bet this river?

registrar · #2 08-21-2006, 09:11 PM

I play it all the same.

gdsdiscgolfer · #3 08-21-2006, 09:13 PM

I might bet 1k on the flop, but otherwise the same.

DDBeast · #4 08-21-2006, 10:14 PM

You guys really check behind on the river? I would make a small value bet, when he checks that, you're definitely ahead unless he's a tricky bastard.

Acein8ter · #5 08-21-2006, 10:33 PM

I'd check the river as well or maybe make a value bet. I would think that he also has a 9, but with what kicker??? If he doesn't have that, he's a fricken calling station.

You bet 80% of the pot post flop, so he should have dumped any draws. (JQ)

He limped in PF, so TT is unlikely. (Unless he likes to play them w/7 people in - Donk)

Masquerade · #6 08-21-2006, 10:49 PM

I was veering towards a river bet but maybe not here. The simplest explanation of your flop bet is that you have a Ten or some straight draw. He may well think he can get you off that hand if the turn bricks - which it does. But once you call the 1800 he has to put you on a Ten at least. He isn't calling the river bet with 88 or 77 and he's very unlikely to have a worse 9. Solid players don't play 96 or 95 in mid-position ... 97 just about conceivable but still unlikely. He's going to be unlikely to even pay you off with a good ten (eg AT) once the jack comes.

You have to offset all that against the danger of a trap. If he likes a 99T flop then you can't fade the possibility of a J helping him. The way he played it, I think 87 is quite plausible and even KQ although less so. Betting river even modestly puts half your chips into this pot so it will be difficult to fold to a re-raise.

nath · #7 08-22-2006, 01:17 AM

bet the river

Rocco · #8 08-22-2006, 03:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
bet the river

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to explain why, nath? I know you're a very aggressive player, but what worse hands do you expect a solid player to call with? He's not likely to play hands like 92s-95s (even with 2 limpers in front) if he's solid, right? Even if he has a worse kicker, we're still splitting. Or do you simply bet out and hope he folds so you don't have to reveal how you play flopped trips? I can't find a value bet to be of any value and I don't see him folding a better hand.

nath · #9 08-22-2006, 06:10 AM

he never has a better hand when he checks the river, unless he's extremely tricky and has J9 or T9. i think you're looking at
a)a ten
b)QJ semibluffing on the turn that caught a pair and now wants to see a showdown rather than bluff the river

i don't know how often either of those hands call but you're, like, never behind there.

Rocco · #10 08-22-2006, 07:51 AM

Yeah, that makes sense... QJ will definitely call a value bet, and maybe T if it's not too large. What's your bet size?