25NL AK hand 300bb deep

[yegon]

I hink this villain is not bluff checkraising here. He might be stupid enough to c/r with KQ or something but the chances of this are slim, most of the time he would just call with a worse king here

isn't this almost a Baluga theorem type of a situation? Yeah the board is paired so it's not Baluga but it's similar imo.

[baker2g]

raise more pf OOP..make it atleast 1.25 and bet the flop bigger..you guys that are saying hes prbably beat, what do you put villian on?

[MrWooster]

I think that this is pretty much baluga - but I still call here - you have position and really great odds, but I think it has to be an easy fold to a large river bet, though you can decide to call a smallish one...

[baker2g]

what do you guys think hes beat by?!?

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
what do you guys think hes beat by?!?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's beat, K7, 77, or some suited and/or connecting 3x.

[prodonkey]

I call.. and am willing to call a reasonable bet on river, he has to have a 3 or 77 K7 to be beating us, but i'm a sissy 300 bb deep

Bet river yourself if he checks to you.

[yegon]

this looks like a 3 more than anything. A 48% VPIP can have X3s, or any ofssuit connector/semiconnector

he is OOP but he is a loose donk and 2 people are allready in the pot when it gets to him

if we are beat we probably only have 2 outs and even though we are deep, we have no implied odds whatsoever a K on the river will be too transparent

[bozzer]

grunch. so really the only hand we can put him on that beats us is 77,AA or *maybe* some 3x combos (edit: and K7). he could be frisky with a number of Kx combos on such a dry flop.

with 100bbs i think this is a call and stack off situation since you'll be getting great pot odds (better than 3-1) on the river.

deeper, i'm not really sure. i think villain has to check hands we beat more often because of the raising threat we pose (if he's thinking about it), and he's more likely to bet bigger if he bets with strength, giving us worse pot odds. i think the chances of s bluff are slim. so that seems clear cut - we can call to make a call/fold decision on the river.

what i'm basically saying is i think there is little to no RIO here, so we can just go with juicy immediate odds (4-1) and hopefully show down the best hand.

[kroeliewoelie]

Against a range of KK+,K3,K7,33,77,AK,KQ,KJ we still have 45% equity. Although of course a large part from this equity comes from KQ,KJ. Removing them from the range gives an equity of 16%. (Where 10% comes from including AK for a split). But even with only KQ we still have 30% equity, enough to call his minraise.

So only in the most pessimistic scenario (for us) his raise his large enough to deny us to odds to call. Being a little more optimistic and iven that we have position, I am inclined to call here and call any river bet up to half the pot.

[yegon]

[ QUOTE ]
Against a range of KK+,K3,K7,33,77,AK,KQ,KJ we still have 45% equity. Although of course a large part from this equity comes from KQ,KJ. Removing them from the range gives an equity of 16%. (Where 10% comes from including AK for a split). But even with only KQ we still have 30% equity, enough to call his minraise.

So only in the most pessimistic scenario (for us) his raise his large enough to deny us to odds to call. Being a little more optimistic and iven that we have position, I am inclined to call here and call any river bet up to half the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not sure I understand this right. This means it's ok to call. Does this mean we can also call a river bet UI? Or are we just calling to catch a K or A?