2/4, flopped set. max value w/ a push?

J. Sawyer · #1 02-01-2006, 05:33 PM

Just sat down an orbit or two ago, no reads.

Is pushing too much of an overbet?

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Texas Hold'em $4-$4 NL (Real Money)
Seat 1: Flanders200 ($566.30 in chips)
Seat 2: jerrysheldon ($449 in chips)
Seat 3: Hero ($517.40 in chips) [10D,10C]
Seat 5: Ekan3 ($403.60 in chips)
Seat 8: Acetimes4 ($576 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
Flanders200 posts blind ($2), jerrysheldon posts blind ($4).

PRE-FLOP
Hero bets $16, Ekan3 calls $16, Acetimes4 folds, Flanders200 bets $35, jerrysheldon folds, Hero calls $21, Ekan3 calls $21.

FLOP [board cards JS,10S,6C ]
Flanders200 bets $100, Hero?

Requin · #2 02-01-2006, 05:42 PM

Looks ok to me.

Big_Jim · #3 02-01-2006, 05:45 PM

A pot sized raise here is: $105+$100+$100+$100 = $405.

You are pushing for $482

This is barely an overbet.

Looks fine, BTW.

J. Sawyer · #4 02-01-2006, 05:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
A pot sized raise here is: $105+$100+$100+$100 = $405.

You are pushing for $482

This is barely an overbet.

Looks fine, BTW.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah I didnt even check to see how much of the pot a push would be. I knew it was slightly over and I pushed, just wanted a line check.

Rotating Rabbit · #5 02-01-2006, 05:48 PM

With stacks as they are, I think its fine to call and get it in on the turn. I think the benefit of him bluffing again/hitting a turn that dooms him with overs/getting pair+draw on turn/3rd man hitting a set and not raising/ balances the possiblity of 3rd man being priced in on a draw or a spade hitting and giving you f/e you dont want.

That said, you have to try hard to not stack someone when you flop a set in a reraised pot, and I think your reraise given your non image is tough for him to call.

Big_Jim · #6 02-01-2006, 05:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With stacks as they are, I think its fine to call and get it in on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
Calling here sucks.

Board is draw heavy as hell, and half the deck kills our action.

He's not folding an overpair.

Pushing here represents a big draw fairly well, also.

J. Sawyer · #7 02-01-2006, 05:55 PM

yeah i'd have to agree, next to folding.. calling is the worst option

Rotating Rabbit · #8 02-01-2006, 06:02 PM

I really cant see JJ-QQ calling this raise, as either 50/50 or a huge dog.

I don't think AA/KK ever folds, no matter what the turn.

I think JJ-QQ plays gets stacked on blank turns.

There is a huge chance that a picture card could doom villian, either by hitting it or giving him reason to use it as a scare card. People rarely check-fold once called in reraised pots in 400nl in my experience. I think you are underesimating the number of times he tries to push hero off 10J or a draw on the turn.

Big_Jim · #9 02-01-2006, 06:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I really cant see JJ-QQ calling this raise

[/ QUOTE ]
JJ obviously instacalls.

QQ depends on the player, but I doubt he gets away.

This guy bet full pot on the flop, and he's looking for some action.

If he has a couple of broadways, (AK/AQ) we're giving him free cards that will stack us when they hit, and he's probably not putting much more money in the pot.

If we call, and MP calls behind us, things get real ugly when a scare card hits the turn.

Rotating Rabbit · #10 02-01-2006, 06:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really cant see JJ-QQ calling this raise

[/ QUOTE ]
JJ obviously instacalls.

QQ depends on the player, but I doubt he gets away.

This guy bet full pot on the flop, and he's looking for some action.

If he has a couple of broadways, (AK/AQ) we're giving him free cards that will stack us when they hit, and he's probably not putting much more money in the pot.

If we call, and MP calls behind us, things get real ugly when a scare card hits the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Note to self: read the board more. I thought we were playing on a 10[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] board (my comments must have made little sense!).

If villian has AK and an A or K falls, he's not getting away. Thats 6 'deaths' vs the 4 'outs' (and vice versa for AQ), and I still think most of the time an overcard falls it will be the nail in someones coffin more often than in heros (remember 3rd man could easily come along for the ride with JQ or some strange hand that hits 2 pair or pair+draw on the turn).

The elimination of JJ from the equation does shift things rather your way though. And everyone is always looking for 10J more than 910, which makes calling scarier.

So on balance, I think bombing the flop is probably fair game. I hereby declare myself an idiot. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[fwiw, not much I suspect! Im still happy calling on a 1096 board though]