25NL: Mathematical Call?

[OSUGreg1983]

Getting 2.5-1 from the pot (total pot of 47.95/my call remaining of 19) on a 2.9-1 draw (12 good cards and 35 bad cards remaining). I know its close, but would most people call this? At this limit the answer I would expect is 90% yes, however as limits increase would more players lay this down b/c the pot doesnt meet the mathematical requirement of 2.9-1?


Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $20.70
Hero (SB): $35.30
BB: $25
UTG: $25

Pre-Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG calls $0.25, BTN calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.15, BB checks

Flop: ($1) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $0.75</font>, BB calls $0.75, UTG folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $1.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $24.75 and is All-In</font>, BTN calls $18.95 and is All-In, Hero...

[WhiteWolf]

Two streets left, not one. We're 1.2-to-1, easy call.

Edit: If it was one street left, why would you assume that 90% of us would make a call not getting the odds??? Or is it that 90% of the total player pool for this level would call?

[OSUGreg1983]

[ QUOTE ]
Two streets left, not one. We're 1.2-to-1, easy call.

Edit: If it was one street left, why would you assume that 90% of us would make a call not getting the odds??? Or is it that 90% of the total player pool for this level would call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Has nothing to do with how many streets are left. (NL Holdem: A guide to cash games") I can't give you a reference b/c i dont have the book in front of me. But flush draws are 4-1 dogs, which means you will hit your hand roughly one time out of 4. I have a combo draw which increases it to roughly 3-1. hence i need 3-1 from the pot to make a call. if im only getting 2.5-1 from the pot, that means i have to hit my hand once out of every 2.5 hands to make this call, but I will only hit it once out of every 3.

Second, I was referring to the general quality of play at this limit that most people would make that call on the flop. i said nothing about the turn.

Lol at 1.2-1. What are you talking about here? You're suggesting that we'll hit a 12 outer 83.33% of the time. I think you need to study draws and pot odds as a combination learning tool. You are calling down with draws waaaay too often if this is what you're saying.

[WhiteWolf]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Two streets left, not one. We're 1.2-to-1, easy call.

Edit: If it was one street left, why would you assume that 90% of us would make a call not getting the odds??? Or is it that 90% of the total player pool for this level would call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Has nothing to do with how many streets are left. (NL Holdem: A guide to cash games") I can't give you a reference b/c i dont have the book in front of me. But flush draws are 4-1 dogs, which means you will hit your hand roughly one time out of 4. I have a combo draw which increases it to roughly 3-1. hence i need 3-1 from the pot to make a call. if im only getting 2.5-1 from the pot, that means i have to hit my hand once out of every 2.5 hands to make this call, but I will only hit it once out of every 3.

Second, I was referring to the general quality of play at this limit that most people would make that call on the flop. i said nothing about the turn.

Lol at 1.2-1. What are you talking about here? You're suggesting that we'll hit a 12 outer 83.33% of the time. I think you need to study draws and pot odds as a combination learning tool. You are calling down with draws waaaay too often if this is what you're saying.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you serious? Everyone is all in on the flop, if we call here we get to see the turn and the river for free, so of course I count the odds of us hitting on the turn or river when I'm calculating my winning chances.

The principle you talk about of only counting the odds for hitting the next card on the turn applies when there is a good chance you will be facing another bet on 4th street. That just doesn't apply here.

1.2-to-1 is 45% to hit, not 83% and yes with 2 streets to come 45% is the chance I hit my 12-outer if I call the all-ins on this street. I have no idea where you get your 83% chance number.

4-to-1 means I hit my draw 1 time out of 5, not 1 time out of 4 as you state. In other words, for every 1 time I hit, I miss 4 times.

I'm suspecting the chances are actually pretty good you're a troll. If you are, well played, because you're about to get dozens of posts explaining exactly why it is YOU don't understand odds.

[DickieBets]

1.2 to 1 , to me, means : 1 / (1 + 1.2) = 1 / 2.2

Since you're getting it all in on the flop - you have two chances to hit your draw - which is roughly 12 outs x 4 = 48%.

[OSUGreg1983]

thanks dickie. i think i'll stick to the CR forums here on out. 2+2 is full of pompous [censored] who's only objective is to make the OPP look like an idiot and not give sound advice. i misspoke and yes i was wrong on the odds. i get quality advice from this site about 20% of the time. CR gives it to me 90%+ of the time. i'm on here to learn not to see if my [censored] is bigger than everyone else. if you want to showboat and act like a pompous dick go to the BBV thread, capiche WhiteWolf? I was obv wrong and 50% of your post is unnecessary. Does that calculation meet your criteria?

[artard]

[ QUOTE ]
thanks dickie. i think i'll stick to the CR forums here on out. 2+2 is full of pompous [censored] who's only objective is to make the OPP look like an idiot and not give sound advice. i misspoke and yes i was wrong on the odds. i get quality advice from this site about 20% of the time. CR gives it to me 90%+ of the time. i'm on here to learn not to see if my [censored] is bigger than everyone else. if you want to showboat and act like a pompous dick go to the BBV thread, capiche WhiteWolf? I was obv wrong and 50% of your post is unnecessary. Does that calculation meet your criteria?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol how have you survived on these forums since april if you get so butt hurt about being a dumbass in your own thread and getting called out on it. btw you were the one who first started acting like a pompous dick in this thread, which was really funny because you were so obviously wrong.

[kendal14]

[ QUOTE ]
Lol at 1.2-1. What are you talking about here? You're suggesting that we'll hit a 12 outer 83.33% of the time. I think you need to study draws and pot odds as a combination learning tool. You are calling down with draws waaaay too often if this is what you're saying.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
thanks dickie. i think i'll stick to the CR forums here on out. 2+2 is full of pompous [censored] who's only objective is to make the OPP look like an idiot and not give sound advice. i misspoke and yes i was wrong on the odds. i get quality advice from this site about 20% of the time. CR gives it to me 90%+ of the time. i'm on here to learn not to see if my [censored] is bigger than everyone else. if you want to showboat and act like a pompous dick go to the BBV thread, capiche WhiteWolf? I was obv wrong and 50% of your post is unnecessary. Does that calculation meet your criteria?

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL and WP at your attempt to sound indignant.

You are the one that was condescending first and implied that someone didn't understand pot odds and acted incredulous at their 1.2 to 1 correctly stated odds.

If you want to dish out the "pomposity" learn how to take it like a man when you correctly get called out on it. And frankly most of his post was a very clear demonstration as to how to correctly calculate the odds (which obviously would be helpful to you in this situation).

Like I said, WP though with the "trying to sound like the reasonable and mature one" in this situation. Have fun at CR.

[WhiteWolf]

[ QUOTE ]
thanks dickie. i think i'll stick to the CR forums here on out. 2+2 is full of pompous [censored] who's only objective is to make the OPP look like an idiot and not give sound advice. i misspoke and yes i was wrong on the odds. i get quality advice from this site about 20% of the time. CR gives it to me 90%+ of the time. i'm on here to learn not to see if my [censored] is bigger than everyone else. if you want to showboat and act like a pompous dick go to the BBV thread, capiche WhiteWolf? I was obv wrong and 50% of your post is unnecessary.

[/ QUOTE ]

I might have taken a more moderate tone if your reply to me didn't contain these lines:

[ QUOTE ]
Lol at 1.2-1. What are you talking about here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure why you think 50% of my post was unnecessary, though. Except for the 'Are you serious?' and the last paragraph, everything in there was directly addressing misconceptions you seem to have about probability, odds, and how to apply them.

Since you seem to have made an honest mistake, I'll apologize for the parts of my post that have offended you. However, in the future, if you have a question and/or difference with someone's reply, please take a more polite tone yourself.

[artard]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Two streets left, not one. We're 1.2-to-1, easy call.

Edit: If it was one street left, why would you assume that 90% of us would make a call not getting the odds??? Or is it that 90% of the total player pool for this level would call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Has nothing to do with how many streets are left. (NL Holdem: A guide to cash games") I can't give you a reference b/c i dont have the book in front of me. But flush draws are 4-1 dogs, which means you will hit your hand roughly one time out of 4. I have a combo draw which increases it to roughly 3-1. hence i need 3-1 from the pot to make a call. if im only getting 2.5-1 from the pot, that means i have to hit my hand once out of every 2.5 hands to make this call, but I will only hit it once out of every 3.

Second, I was referring to the general quality of play at this limit that most people would make that call on the flop. i said nothing about the turn.

Lol at 1.2-1. What are you talking about here? You're suggesting that we'll hit a 12 outer 83.33% of the time. I think you need to study draws and pot odds as a combination learning tool. You are calling down with draws waaaay too often if this is what you're saying.

[/ QUOTE ]

This entire post is a level right?