River: c/r or b/r ?

[HoneyBadger]

Villain is quite solid, a tad passive (2.0), but overall a good player (over 5k hands)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls.

I don't cap here because I'm OOP; villain is good; knows I am; hence, I don't like JJ that much.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls.

Overpair, standard c/r in my book. I c/r draws here, so I must balance my range by c/r-ing overpairs

Turn: (5.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls.

I must bet here. Ok, he went for a call c/r, raise turn line. He knows I'll bet the turn no matter what after the c/r.So he probably either has AK here he wants to take to a free showdown, or a better overpair; the latter being more likely, so I go into call-down mode.

River: (9.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Jackpot, I have him beat. How to extract the most? I'm almost 100% certain he will bet if I check and call my raise; however, would he raise me if I bet out? Will he see this as some weird wa/wb line and raise QQ+? Maybe even AK as a bluff? Or is a c/r better, knowing he will bet out?

[BigBadBabar]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm almost 100% certain he will bet if I check

[/ QUOTE ]

then check.

[HoneyBadger]

c/r is 2 bets, b/r is 3...

[Hyperrrprank]

There's a number missing here that's needed to answer the question... What's your estimate on the percentage of the time that he'll raise you if you bet out? That lets you run an expectation calculation. If he'll raise 50% of the time and call 50% of the time, then you win 1.5BB on average by betting out (3BB won 50% of the time, 1BB won 50% of the time, -0BB lost since you're sure you have a lock). That means checkraising is better in that case since you will always win 2BB.

If you can be sure that he'll raise you say 75% of the time, it becomes profitable in the long run to bet out since you're expectation has become 3(75)+1(25)/100 or 2.5BB on average.

You can't normally have that exact a percentage on someone, but it helps if you can answer the simplified version... "Will he raise instead of flatcall more than half the time?" If yes, bet. If no, checkraise.

[StrictlyStrategy]

The whole line is good. Getting raised on this turn sucks as he has you beat like 90% of the time.

River c/r is way better, as your whole line is "overpair" and betting now is "haha! set!"

[Xhad]

I don't think it matters much because villain is acting like he flopped a set or straight and you're probably going to 3-4 bets no matter what. I would check for game balancing reasons.

[ProfessorBen]

SEXY PLZ.

Even if villain puts you on something like AJ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] initially and raises, he's definitely folding to a 3-bet. 88/99 goes to captown either way.

[BigBadBabar]

RESPONDING TO HONEYBADGER BECAUSE I USE QUICK REPLY AND XHAD GOT A LITTLE EMOTIONAL, &lt;3

honey, you say the guy is a tad passive, if he has aa-qq and you donk this river, is he honestly raising?

[BigBadBabar]

if he has a set he's going to 3bet you most likely so you can cap it.

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
if he has a set he's going to 3bet you most likely so you can cap it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I guess he is a lot more likely to 3bet your cr than cap your 3bet. Clear cr.