Stars 1/2 - AK 2 bets cold on turn

[JSampras1]

Flop bettor is 15%/6.5%/1.8 AF and pretty solid. I have a note on him that he always likes to bet his strong draws.

Turn raiser is 54% VPIP, ZERO% raise in 130 hands, .95 AF. I had a note that he once cold called a raise with QJ and waited till the turn to raise flopped top pair. I don't think this is the same situation though.

I peeled one on the flop because i have 2 overs + gutshot, and the flop bettor might even be betting a draw.

I was going to raise the turn, but then it gets raised before me. It's 8 BB's right now and 2 to me, so i'm getting 4-1, but I have a big problem. If the raiser has QK i have no wins. Maybe he has a weaker ace, but if he has AJ or JT i have 7 outs (kings + queens). He could also be raising if the ace hit him. I really have no idea since this guy never raises pf. But if the flop bettor has a flush draw, i lose some of these outs too, plus he may 3 bet and charge me more.

Is this a fold? Call, then call river? I don't see how 3 betting makes sense here. Anyway thanks for the help!

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, CO calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero ???

[BadBigBabar]

tough spot; i think a fold is the best play here; calling is sometimes playable but the risk is that you get trapped for multiple bets if you coldcall and they keep going to war. 3betting doesn't seem great to me for some reason that i can't really put my finger on but has to do with the board, and co's stats.

with co's stats being so passive i don't see him on a semibluff that often and i think you're beat most of the time here. in the stars 1/2 i can fold this.

[knockonwood]

It looks like someone has at least 2 pair here. Like Babar mentioned there is a real chance of a 3bet here if you call two cold.

[Aaron W.]

I really don't think that folding here is giving up much, if anything.

You're against a solid player who led into the PFR twice and a passive player who raised the second one. Your best hope here is that the double donker has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and that the raiser has QJ/KJ. In this case, you're ahead, but you're not *that* far ahead.

pokenum -h ad kd - qs jc - ah 2h -- js 6h th as
Holdem Hi: 42 enumerated boards containing As Js Th 6h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Kd 27 64.29 15 35.71 0 0.00 0.643
Qs Jc 3 7.14 39 92.86 0 0.00 0.071
Ah 2h 12 28.57 30 71.43 0 0.00 0.286

On the other hand, if you're behind, you might be drawing to as few as 3 outs, and that might only be to chop the pot. The pot is relatively small, so you're not getting any overlay to help you if you're wrong about being ahead.

[neurotiq]

I'd fold. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[abby318]

fold

[Fadook]

Dump it. CO's raise has killed your odds and it's very unlikely you have the best hand.

[Craggoo]

With your read on the passive player, I dont think him raising on the turn is ever less than top 2 pair. If you hate money call and expect to get trapped between two bettors. I think this is an easy fold.

[petsa]

Weak draw here, with 2-3 outs depending of if the other opponent has KQ. I think two pairs is more likely though. In that case you would have 3 more outs. So maximum 5.5 outs. If both of the players were loose aggressive, I might call down. In this situation I fold (I hope I would... I'm not famous for throwing my AK's away).

[JSampras1]

I actually folded the hand. Fortunately the Q did not hit, or i would have been annoyed, but I felt like it was the right play.

Btw the river went check, bet, fold, so i didn't get to see the actual hands. I still feel good about the fold tho.