1/2 line check with AK (big draw) against likely set

[ycjason]

villain is 22/9/1.3 over 30 hands or so, he should view me as somewhat LAGish, like 30/24/4 as I have gotten some hands lately.

once he bet the turn after raising the flop, I was almost certain that he had a set, but I still have 13 outs against that and I should get paid off if I do hit. Is the river betting size about right? I was going to push if I hit my flush (that's runner runner flush, he wouldn't think it's that likely) or straight. But now the card completes the flush draw on flop, I think pushing might scare him away, am I just thinking too much here and should have pushed allin?


Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $380.10
Hero (UTG): $232.80
MP: $195.45
CO: $77.60
BTN: $507.30
SB: $118

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $8</font>, MP calls $8, 4 folds

Flop: ($19) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $12</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $24</font>, Hero calls $12

Turn: ($67) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP bets $20</font>, Hero calls $20

River: ($107) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $66</font>

[sh58]

i think a shove is the best play, i doubt he is folding a set here

[MoP_86]

Hero crai on turn!

[jlocdog]

I like your line. Now overbet that river if your image is true...

[ycjason]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero crai on turn!

[/ QUOTE ]
there is no FE on the turn, villain has a set like 90%+ of the time. He's giving me a cheap card, why would I want to put more money in behind when I can safely fold or put more money in (and can reasonably expect to get called) on the river?

[matt85]

Do you not think he can have a AKc/ATc a lot of the time here? Min raise followed by small bet on the turn is v.weak IMO as a flop min raise with the goods is usually follwed by 3/4 pot or so, no? So he plays his big draw/ pair +draw 'aggressively' (for him- hes a nit remember) by betting 1/3 pot.

I think his range here is at least 35%% AKc/ATc/otheer random clubs and 65~% set. So I think there is definately a lot of value in betting river but I am insta mucking if he raises me given stats.

Thoughts?

[ycjason]

I can't remember exactly why I had that read (probably because I saw him play some TP or big draw hands before), but I was very sure that this player is very unlikely to be betting 1 pair or drawing hand like this. FWIW, I was c/f to any decent size (&gt;2/5 pot) bet on the river if river is A or K.

[scatt_man]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero crai on turn!

[/ QUOTE ]

we had this discussion before about the checkraise on the turn with my AQ last weak

remember, we decided that it wasn't the best line to take ??

[diskopoker]

his dumbass betting pattern looks like he is drawing to me. as played i c/c river.

i like a bet of about $50 on the turn - i think you will take it down a lot here and you have lottsa outs