.25 / .50 Turn play with 2 pairs

Tib · #1 07-05-2007, 10:25 AM

How do you play the turn here ?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP3 ($63)
CO ($49.70)
Button ($41.25)
SB ($46.95)
Hero ($46.55)
UTG ($13.40)
UTG+1 ($36.85)
MP1 ($25.05)
MP2 ($49.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.75.
5 folds, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.75) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets $1.5, Hero calls $1.50, CO folds.

Turn: ($4.75) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $3, Hero raises to $7.5, SB raises to $15.5

threads13 · #2 07-05-2007, 10:56 AM

I think when the SB bets the turn his most likely hand is some sort of top pair hand. Sets are always possible. If you don't have a read on the player I don't mind calling here and putting in a bet or raise on the river. If he has some sort of top pair you are probably only going to get another bet or at most two out of him. As the pot gets larger QJ/Q8 become more and more possible.

If you call here, you are going to probably have to call any river that isn't a J, T, or 9. You also have to worried about A's and K's.

I think that this guy is playing at least a two-pair hand when he re-raises the turn. All of the two-pair combos are QJ/Q6/Q8/J8/J6. I think it is a tough spot.

You are getting about 2:1 effective odds IF you think it is all going in on the river. This means you need to be good 33% of the time for it to be break-even. You can probably count about 3 outs on average IF you are behind. I think you can call. If they bet one of the above river cards it is going to be hard to call. It depends on his river bet's size and the specific card that hits.