AK vs [censored] ratholer

[tozzy]

not as mega-straightforward as the title might suggest

original raiser is 25/20 over a decent sample. shortstacker is, well, russian


Party Poker, $3/$6 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $1,206.90
UTG: $894.30
CO: $604.80
BTN: $150
Hero (SB): $594

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $21</font>, CO folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $150 and is All-In</font>, Hero

anyone likes coldcalling and calling a reshove? just shoving ourselves?

[Praetor]

just shove

[shootaa]

[ QUOTE ]
just shove

[/ QUOTE ]

[creative]

shooove

[Paul B.]

fold

[FionnMac]

[ QUOTE ]
fold

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

[Pete H]

Deftones - My Own Summer (Shove It)

[luegofuego]

wow thats the worst song ive heard in my life

[HonkDonk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fold

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

[/ QUOTE ]

Why lol?

With a shove or a cc you have only EV+ if you play vs. 2 high cards (or sc). But imo only a maniac would push that vs. a UTG-raiser with to more players behind.

So you may expect here ~90% 22-QQ and you are 45:55 = 1:1,22 behind (Some people say its a coinflip, i say you are behind).
your odds are 180:147 = 1,22.
So what?

In ~10% (its imho a lot) you are in front vs BTN (2 high cards, sc) ~ 60:40
[(60*180 - 40* 147)/100] * 10% = + $4,9

Vs AA/KK from Button you are Behind a lot 8 (i forget it) .

If you shove you get calls only from pp`s (AK) and you are behind again ($594)1:1,22 (i forget it).

Maybe ~2% (its not a lot) you will see AA/KK from BB or UTG and you are 18,5 : 81,5 behind ($594)

= [(18,5*771 - 81,5*594)/100]* 2% = - $9,5

So imo (it was only a very fast calculation !!)

A shove is here ~~~~~~~~ $4,9 - $9,5 = -$4,6

i would fold.

[74o_Clownsuit]

Wait wtf folding lol???

I don't think shoving is that bad but it sucks [censored] when someone behind us wakes up with aces or kings. I don't mind just cold-calling because it looks pretty strong, and it might cause UTG to fold a hand that has decent equity against AK.)