100NL Two Pair on turn vs Tight/Passive

[Ctrl.Dominate]

Villian is 14/4/1.5 No notes.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $74.00
<font color="black">Hero (BB): $320.30</font>
UTG: $94.50
UTG+1: $189.30
MP1: $111.40
MP2: $20.95
MP3: $49.10
CO: $106.70
BTN: $124.75

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (9 Players)
3 folds, MP2 calls $1.00, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.00, SB calls $0.50, Hero checks

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($4) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2.75</font>, MP2 folds, BTN calls $2.75, SB calls $2.75

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($12.25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $8.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $24.00</font>, Hero???

What's the plan here? And why?

[jhill3535]

How does Villian view you. Your stack makes it look like you have been pretty active.

I don't see anyway to fold. My guess is that Villian likely has a hand like Ax of Diamonds, flopped top pair and turned a flush draw to go with his pair.

I think you have 2 options. You can call or put him all in. It is just 2 likely that he has a draw here. I know he could have a set, but that is a much smaller part of his range.

I would probabably call and call a reasonable bet on the river on any river card, trying to get value from missed A8-J's and missed flush draws that decide to bluff the river.

Or I might reraise to put Villian all in about 20-25% of the time if I think he will call off with a flush draw or TPGK.

[Ctrl.Dominate]

I run about 20/10/3.5. He knows I'm aggro or at least he should.

[coordi]

I would think this is an AJo or A10 putting you on a fd. I'd probly tank for a while for the hollywood and shove.

[Johnes Benjamin]

For some reason this makes me really nervous but probably cause i'm running bad LOL
If you are that aggro I think you'll get enough calls with worse hands to make this a profitable shove.
Here's hoping he blows!

[Johnes Benjamin]

I was looking over it and I forgot he was tight/passive. This sucks bc he's not likely to call without a set.
I guess If he sees you're aggro and he knows you know he's tight/passive you might get some 3rd level thinking inducing a call?

What about possibility or reraising smaller to ~65 hoping he pushes over the top? He is surely going to commit his chips slightly more often when coming over the top than calling.
Is it possibly enough more that this would be better EV than shoving?
Maybe call but are you just going to let it go if a D falls?

It seemed standard but the more I think about this the more I hate this spot.
'Course, when in doubt: SHOVE!!!!!!!

[BlackRain]

Assuming OP's stats are over a reasonable sample, this type of villain has a set way more often than you guys are giving him credit for imo.

There really is no conceivable hand here that a slowplay loving, mega nit wakes up with on the turn that you beat. Of the players that I know in that game with these stats, AFAIK none of them are ever doing this with something like 65ss. The odd time, he has AQ, but most of the time you are crushed by 77 or 22 and 53ss the odd time.

[Ctrl.Dominate]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming OP's stats are over a reasonable sample

[/ QUOTE ]

1200 hands.

[BigBiceps]

Call and re-evaluate river since you are in position.

I don't hate a fold here either, but people who are saying push are fools.

[Ctrl.Dominate]

[ QUOTE ]
Call and re-evaluate river since you are in position.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually I'm in the BB and he is on the button, does that change anything?