1/2 QQ in re-raised pot

[beset]

Villain in this hand is TAG on the loose side, maybe 32/20 type stats. He has 3-bet me preflop 3 times prior and 3 different things have happened. I 4-bet with 98s and shoved the flop and he folded. I folded to the 3-bet. Once I called with LPP and check/folded to a c-bet. Stacks are 150bbs.

I open UTG+1 w/ QQ. I am raising a lot but not an insane amount. He and I have similar stats over the hands we've played together. He reraises the pot and I call.

Flop is 882 with no two flush. I check, he bets half the pot. I call.

Turn is a 4 completing the rainbow. I check and he bets half the pot. I decided I am WA/WB at this point and just call planning to re-evaluate on the river depending on his bet size and the card that comes. Thoughts?

[mynameisjonas]

Standard.
Against a tight player i might even muck turn.

[kbinder]

I like your thoughts and generally agree with the WA/WB assessment.

Given your history, can you make any sort of prediction on what the size of his river bet will be? If you had a lot of information (which you probably don't, but I find this sort of exercise interesting anyway), you might be able to determine if it's better for you to lead the river.

edited because a turn check-raise can never be good here.

[beset]

Yeah I just felt like mucking the turn would be too weak but in retrospect I really don't think he would two barrel overs here after I c/c the flop that often so it can't be THAT wrong to muck the turn.

At the time when I c/c the turn I expected to see anything from a 1/2 PSB to a shove. Actually more nervous when he did in fact bet half the pot again on the river.

[dirtysanchez]

yuck, getting 3:1 flip a coin i guess? do you think hes capable of this w/ a smaller overpair? what was the river card?

[Panthro]

so I guess you're calling a river bet?

[dirtysanchez]

[ QUOTE ]
so I guess you're calling a river bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

really tough to tell without being at the table. this a really [censored] spot, and the river card matters somewhat if its not a total brick. if beset feels like villain is capable of taking this line w/ a smaller ovepair, calling is ok, if not , folding is ok. this is razor thin either way given history IMO.

[Maulik]

You have no idea where you are because you didn't bet the flop. You've really underepresented your hand to the river, so I'm calling or leading

[shpanko]

[ QUOTE ]
You have no idea where you are because you didn't bet the flop. You've really underepresented your hand to the river, so I'm calling or leading

[/ QUOTE ]

You're kidding right? Betting flop into the preflop reraiser is retarded

[beset]

[ QUOTE ]
You have no idea where you are because you didn't bet the flop. You've really underepresented your hand to the river, so I'm calling or leading

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I guess I disagree that I have "no idea" where I am at. I think I am either way ahead or way behind. That is a place to be "at" I suppose. Also, I think raising and calling a 3b preflop and then check/calling the flop says pretty clearly I have a pair and probably a big one, no? I think bet/folding the flop is going to involve mucking the best hand pretty regularly and bet/calling a shove seems awful. Felt like a right on the line certified wierd spot.

Anyhow the river was jack. I guess any broadway is pretty cruddy here.

So if you lead the river are you bet/folding maulik? Seems pretty risky.