9/18 live - River trips check raise

[AlienBoy]

I know the discussion of checkraises are pretty common here - and the consensus is that it is nearly always correct to bet out instead - and I agree. I am usually pushing for value every time I can. Though I think this hand called for a C/R on the river.

9/18 live Commerce. My image tonight is tight and aggressive.

As I recall I'm the SB (though I *might* have been BB, I'll recount as SB - wish there was a "live" poker tracker).

I'm SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB is a TAGish guy that respects my play.

MP2 is college kid, tight and aggressive preflop, but can't fold post flop, like ever. IIf he's in PF, he's raising, but just won't let go later.

CO is Tight/passive/unimaginative.



MP1 limps, MP2 *raises*, folds to CO who calls, button folds, SB. I call (this is why I can't remember if I was BB or SB - it's a loose call from SB for sure - regardless, I call.) BB calls.

4.5 BB
Flop:

6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Wowiee. Nice flop for me. My image at the table gives me a bit of fold equity, and I've found that when I bet out I often get alot of folds. Not sure If I'm getting many folds here, but with 14 outs, I'm about 56% to make it by the river here unless MP2 or CO have pocket aces. I'd like BB to go since he usually causes be trouble if he's in the pot. Also, a bet here could give me some useful information.

I bet. BB folds, MP2 raises, CO calls. Wow. So much for that. I'm certain that MP2 has pocket AA,KK,QQ,JJ, TT. CO could also have a pocket, or maybe AK, or a K high flush draw.

Ooops. Hmmm I may have only 11 outs here, still the pot's now getting nice in size, and of course I call.

7.5 BB
TURN: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (or some blank think it was a 9)

Obviously I have no fold equity, but I'm happy to stay in for one bet so

I check, MP2 bets, CO calls I call.

10.5 BB

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]


Wowie. I'm 99% certain I'm best here. I think a bit and then I check, going for a check-raise.

The reasoning is that I'm *certain* that MP2 is going to bet. He's down to his last 2 big bets, so if I bet and he raised, I couldn't 3 bet him anyway. Also if he raised my bet, the CO would certainly fold. In fact, the CO might fold here if I bet and CO called.

On the other hand, I think CO would call one bet if he thinks he's heads up with MP2.

So If I check, I should make at least 3 BB, and maybe 4 if CO then overcalls my C/R.

If I bet, I make at most 2, and perhaps only 1 BB.


Comments on all streets welcome of course.

AB

[threads13]

I like the c/r.

[thirddan]

i would 3bet the flop...and the river is good...

[ChuckyB]

Love the check-raise on the river based on your read of MP2. In this situation it beats betting out -- you could get an extra bet from the 3rd player in the pot.

With the CO calling two cold on the flop and you having 14 outs, I'd 3-bet this flop and hope it gets capped and called by CO.

[TheHip41]

easy check raise

[BigBadBabar]

i think 3betting the flop is okay, then the c/r would be sick on the river since our flush draw didn't get there and obviously we don't have anything [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[JJH3984]

threebet the flop. check raise the river as played.

[AlienBoy]

Interesting idea on 3 betting flop. It crossed my mind.

I didn't 3 bet flop because:

1) I felt I really had no fold equity here.

2) I was way OOP, so if I 3 bet here, I'm still probably not getting a free card if I check turn

3) If I c-bet the turn UI, I think I'm spewing against these guys.



This is one of those areas where I'm a little unsure - A leak I am trying to patch for myself is playing too aggressive too often, and so I'm working on more "selective" aggression.


AB

[JJH3984]

you are threebetting for value not for fold equity.

[AlienBoy]

Okay, I see what you mean.

If I 3 bet flop, and am only called, would you agree that I'm still checking turn UI?

If I 3 bet, and MP2 caps, do you think it might now push CO out?


If I don't improve, MP2 wins 100% of the time here.

If I do improve, I beat both MP2 and CO 99% of the time here I think.

So, that means I *do* want to keep CO in to pay off if I hit, no?


I see the idea of pushing my slim edge with a 3 bet, but I am just wondering if I should be thinking more about implied odds here?


OR:

Would you be more aggressive and push the edge by 3 betting flop, and betting out turn even UI (considering post size and implied odds), and then going for a sexy on the river if improved?




AB