**uNL Concept of the week: Week 5, Reverse Implied Odds** - Page 3

King Car · #21 11-23-2006, 01:52 AM

Villain has is new to the table.

Does this hand fit the RIO concept, or is this a weak fold?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $55.55
CO: $21.75
Button: $22.60
Hero: $24.35
BB: $27.75

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG calls, CO calls, Button folds, Hero raises to $1.5, BB calls, 2 folds.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($3.5, 2 players)
Hero bets $2, BB calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($7.5, 2 players)
Hero bets $5, BB raises all-in $24.25, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $19.25 returned to BB.

Results:
Final pot: $17.5

King Car · #22 11-23-2006, 01:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
When does it switch from being Reverse Implied Odds to implied odds?

How would I play this hand differently with QQ, JJ, TT, 99?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (3 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($5)
Hero ($41.60)
SB ($26.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
Hero raises to $1, SB (poster) raises to $1.65, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5, SB calls $3.25.

Flop: ($10.25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB calls $26.70 (All-In), Hero calls $21.80.

Turn: ($58.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($58.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $58.75

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I play this the same. Is this ever a fold, without a dead on read?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

104,940 games 0.047 secs 2,232,765 games/sec

Board: 4c 2h 7c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 23.9570 % 23.51% 00.45% { 77+, 44, 22, A8s+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 76.0430 % 75.59% 00.45% { KcKd }

Wolfram · #23 11-27-2006, 08:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I play this the same. Is this ever a fold, without a dead on read?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

104,940 games 0.047 secs 2,232,765 games/sec

Board: 4c 2h 7c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 23.9570 % 23.51% 00.45% { 77+, 44, 22, A8s+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 76.0430 % 75.59% 00.45% { KcKd }

[/ QUOTE ]
You're dreaming with that range. There's no way that a random villain is over-pushing A8s, KQo or AJo given the PF action. You'd need the mother of all reads to include that in his range.

A more likely µNL/SSNL pushing range for villain would be 22, 44, 77+, AK, A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]+, though I think most villains don't push FD+overcards that hard.

munkey · #24 11-27-2006, 09:39 AM

KK hand:

I put villan on 22,88+,Ako, JJ+ and insta call this.
Villan may have AA given his weaksauce pflop rrz but he's going to have to show me.

Supwithbates · #25 12-09-2006, 04:12 AM

I keep losing with AA to lower sets. While I can get away sometimes, there are often boards where I know I'm stacking KK/QQ and if they're smoothcalling raises/3bets with KK/QQ preflop then it's hard to know when I'm up against a set and when I'm good. Pot control obv. doesn't work if they're trying to build a big pot.

Here's an example:
.10/.25 blinds
Folded to Hero (25$)
Hero in MP3 raises to 1$
Button (30$ behind) calls 1$
BB (14$ behind) calls .75

Flop:
T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB checks
Hero bets 2.50$
Button folds
Villian raises to $5.00

A call commits me, a fold seems weak. But I don't see villians check/minraising with anything that AA beats, so I generally fold here anyways.

Now what happens here though?
Hero (30$) is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero raises to 1$ (.10/.25 blinds)
CO (20$) calls 1$, blinds fold
Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero bets $1.75, Villian raises to $5.00
What's the plan here? We're suddenly OOP and the raise could mean a lot! But from my experience, even in 25NL most villians know enough about reverse implied odds that they're not trying to get allin without AA/KK or a set, and it's a set more often than it's KK. Again, folding here seems weak, but how often are we REALLY good? Another problem here is that many villians WILL raise the flop then fold if we call/raise/bet any more. So this is another case of reverse implied odds.

Now change the setting: Villian smoothcalls the same flop bet. Turn blanks, we've got a rag rainbow non-drawy flop. Should we be going for pot control here or trying to stack JJ/QQ/KK?

I feel as if every time I win with AA/KK it's a small pot, and every time I lose I'm losing 1/4-1/3 my stack. And it seems counterintuitive anyways to try to build a big pot with AA then shut down once I run into resistance. It's like I only get called when I'm beat...

Now most of these examples in this thread refer to weaker hands like JJ/AJ and such; I'm not having a problem folding these hands, but am more specifically running into problems with AA/KK. It just seems a lot harder to laydown AA regularly on uncoordinated flops just because someone raises us. And I have not yet once gotten allin in this situation and been against anything but a set.

Minnie Man · #26 01-27-2007, 12:38 AM

These posts are great, but I think there are many more topics that should be covered. Will these "Concept of the week" threads pick up again anytime soon?

Leviathan101 · #27 01-27-2007, 04:59 PM

I got a great RIO hand that I posted this past week.

Full Tilt Poker
$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
4 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

Stack Sizes
Hero (BB): $124.8
UTG: $49.75
BTN: $142.65
SB: $74.95

Preflop: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K

($0.75, 4 players)
UTG folds, BTN raises to $3, SB folds, Hero raises to $12, BTN calls $9

Flop: Q

7

9

($24.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $15, BTN raises to $30, Hero calls $15

Turn: Q

7

9

[T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] ($84.25, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: Q

7

9

T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] ($84.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $20, BTN calls $20

I'm OOP, over 200bb deep, and facing a large pot on a drawy board. The general consesus was to shove the flop over the raise (thanks to my maniac image), as I'm probably ahead now, and prevents dealing with bad turns and rivers and RIO.
The way I played it, left me stuggling with the board. River was a blocker, cause I don't think he raises without the goods, and I don't wanna get bluffed off my hand.

Minnie Man · #28 01-27-2007, 05:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I got a great RIO hand that I posted this past week.

Full Tilt Poker
$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
4 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

Stack Sizes
Hero (BB): $124.8
UTG: $49.75
BTN: $142.65
SB: $74.95

Preflop: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K

($0.75, 4 players)
UTG folds, BTN raises to $3, SB folds, Hero raises to $12, BTN calls $9

Flop: Q

7

9

($24.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $15, BTN raises to $30, Hero calls $15

Turn: Q

7

9

[T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] ($84.25, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: Q

7

9

T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] ($84.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $20, BTN calls $20

I'm OOP, over 200bb deep, and facing a large pot on a drawy board. The general consesus was to shove the flop over the raise (thanks to my maniac image), as I'm probably ahead now, and prevents dealing with bad turns and rivers and RIO.
The way I played it, left me stuggling with the board. River was a blocker, cause I don't think he raises without the goods, and I don't wanna get bluffed off my hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to be results oriented, but I not curious as to what hand calls your $20 river bet that would not raise you. I am having difficulty putting villain on a hand that he calls such a be RR PF, raises the flop and then only calls a less than 1/4 PSB on the river. AA? KK? Can't be a busted draw.

Leviathan101 · #29 01-27-2007, 05:47 PM

It's not trying to extract value. It's preventing bluffs. straight out of No Limit Hold'Em theory and practice. I'm trying to prevent a bluff. I expect a busted draw to fold here, not raise. If I get raised or called, I expect to lose, but that's better than checking, and folding to a 1/2 pot bet from a busted draw. Better to lose $20 here, than lose $80 getting bluffed out. I think it's worthwhile in this spot.

Minnie Man · #30 01-27-2007, 07:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It's not trying to extract value. It's preventing bluffs. straight out of No Limit Hold'Em theory and practice. I'm trying to prevent a bluff. I expect a busted draw to fold here, not raise. If I get raised or called, I expect to lose, but that's better than checking, and folding to a 1/2 pot bet from a busted draw. Better to lose $20 here, than lose $80 getting bluffed out. I think it's worthwhile in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

You misunderstood me...or I didn't explain myself well enough. I totally understand the concept of a blocking bet. And this was an excellent place to use it. I am just curious as to what villain had. If he had a busted draw, then he wouldn't have called. That is what I was guessing he had, but the call on the river surprised me. Now I was trying to think, what hand did he have to play in this manner. I just can't see him calling $20 river bet into a $85 pot with many hands. So....???