NL25: AA v 2 NIT robots. $24 in the pot $16 left. Q on flop.

[GrumpyB]

I really didn’t know what to do next. What would you do?

<font color="blue">Reads
I’d been at the table about one orbit, but I recognize villain1 and villain2. The site I play doesn’t support Poker Tracker [and I've had to format this hand history myself too - time to move on maybe] so I can’t give you any stats, but they are two very similar players. They play 10+ tables and I wonder how they keep track.

Maybe they don’t need to - they play to a very simple formula. Very tight, then swings for the fences with premium hands. They win a lot of small pots, but there are still enough unobservant players around at NL25 [and you have to be REALLY unobservant not to notice] for their large overbets to get called all the way to showdown facing no more than a medium pair or AK unimproved often enough for these guys to make a living.

If I had to guess, their stats must be something crazy like 8/8 </font>

0.12/0.25 Texas Hold'em (No Limit)

UTG (50.69)
<font color="red">UTG+1: Villain 1 (38.03)</font>
<font color="green">MP: Hero (24.38)</font>
<font color="red">CO: Villain 2 (24.13)</font>
Button (16.54)
SB /empty/
BB (27.70)

Preflop: Villain 1 is UTG+1. Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Villain 2 is CO

<font color="#666666"> fold</font>, <font color="red">UTG+1 (villain 1) call 0.25</font>, <font color="green">Hero raise to 1.25</font>, <font color="red">CO (villain 2) raise to 3.00</font>, <font color="#666666">2 fold</font>, <font color="red">UTG+1 (villain 1) call 3.00</font>,...

<font color="blue">OK, another AA is much less likely than AK, KK or QQ. Do I go all-in, which may scare them off, or try for a little more? I think too long and then hit 8 when I meant to hit 9.</font>

<font color="green">Hero raise to 8.00</font>, <font color="red">CO (villain 2) call 8.00, UTG+1 (villain 1) call 8.00</font>.

<font color="blue">Hmm, I’d have guessed one fold and one all-in rather than two calls.</font>

Flop: (24.25) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>

<font color="blue">I do not like that flop. If either villain has QQ I’m facing a set.</font>

Villain 1 checks.

Now it’s up to me!

The pot is 24.25. I have 16.38 left, villain 2 has 16.31 and villain 1 [who just checked] has 30.03.

Against two super tight multi-tabling machines is it really likely that I’m ahead? Could one have AK/AQs, the other KK [possible JJ] - which out of most possible combinations looks like the only one I'd beat?

[rdrr]

SAHIODHSYAFOUIDHSAOFUHDSFIHGFDAgfdagdfag

edit: SHOVE, YES you are indeed VERY likely ahead!

[Jeff76]

If you push and are called by one opponent, you are getting 2.5 to 1 on your money. That means you have to be good here a little less than 30% of the time when you are called, and obviously you'll be good at least that often (what do you think they are doing with KK?) You are committed so get your chips in the middle.

[AlexB182]

Push flop. I'd raise a little bit more PF.

[RapidEvolution]

Pretty easy shove on the flop. After villain 2 reraises and villain 1 calls, I'm tempted to push preflop too, but I see your point about them being nitty and possibly folding KK/AK.

[Abdullaev]

I think that you played it fine preflop. I'd probably have reraised to ten or so, with of the intention of getting all in on almost any flop, which lots of KKs will call. You're probably ahead. If you lost this hand, don't let it affect how you play this hand in this spot in the future.

[GrumpyB]

Thanks guys - I was being too results oriented because I did push and lost to villain2’s QQ.

What was much worse though was that I went on a little tilt swing right after as I tried to work out how dumb I'd been. A little voice in my head kept saying, "of course he had QQ. He'd have pushed if he had KK, and villian1 probably has a medium pair (he open limped then called two raises) - so what's left?"

I really did think I may have been very stupid. So thanks again for the sanity check! Normal service will now be resumed.

[UncleGogi]

Joke: yeap, bad flop... you should c/f here.

Dude, you have invested 1/3 of your stack preflop, so wtf?!
Just push!
BTW, I would raise to 9.5$ if I dont want to scare them, but I like 11$ more.
Anyway even raising to 8$ you dont give them odds to set mine.

[thevirus32]

Just because they are nits dosnt mean they hit there hand on the flop. QQ is the only likley hand that is ahead of you given the preflop action. If they are nits they would likley fold there small PP to the 3bet.

Shove flop.

[Abdullaev]

You got QQ dude to make a mistake by calling your reraise preflop.

[ QUOTE ]
I went on a little tilt swing right after

[/ QUOTE ]

That's sort of what I'm talking about when I say don't let it affect how you play this hand in the future. I'd go on a tilt swing too. I almost wish I could turn off short-term memory sometimes, so I could keep playing without letting one unlucky hand snowball into another three or four mistakes.

Because if QQ villain actually knew he could tilt you by stacking you off with a set here, then maybe calling here is the right move for him after all, considering the money you might spew to him on later hands. Dunno.