top boat scary river 4/8 live

[One Outer]

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Ya, I think it is a pretty easy vaule bet, not a whole lot different then betting out with a small set that turns into a small boat.

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What range do you put your opponents on when they call the turn bet? Wouldn't a player holding a Q be very likely to have played it exactly the way your opponents have played so far?

I can't figure out why quads seem so unlikely to you guys. What else could they hold?!

-eric

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this could just be my experience in the games that I play, but I think they can have K high and trying to chop or even straight draws on the turn. The players we're playing against in these games are terrible and I'm not going to automatically give one of the credit for the last Q in the deck.

Although I see where you're coming from. I think the majority of the time the Q is not out there and we get calls hoping to chop.

[AlienBoy]

elindaur: thanks for your comment - that is how I analyzed after the hand - caught in the heat of the moment, I bet/called... In retrospect a check call would have been better.

What made it difficult at the time was the calling station who was calling down with literally anything at times...



AB

[jesse8888]

FWIW I would never bet this river. Even if nobody has the case queen AND you can get the player who is playing the baord (Only 3 cards improve this board if I'm not mistaken...the Aces and case queen) to call, you only make half a bet. I have to believe somebody has a queen here often enough (1 time in 3 assuming the guy with nothing ALWAYS called) to make checking better than betting. Unless of course one or more of the players is, to quote a friend, a special kind of retarded

[AlienBoy]

Yea, I definitely agree that checking the river is correct, and my bet/call was spew - just call me a donkey.... lol... It occurred to me about 2 seconds after sticking the bet in - that's what I get for betting before fully thinking.


AB

[JJH3984]

I don't think you should bet here.

[Niediam]

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Not betting is bad.

Folding to a raise is terrible.

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I believe that "not betting" is the default play on this board given your hand range. So to claim that this play is "bad" suggests that you know something about the players in this hand that wasn't given in the OP. Do you?

To claim that not betting is bad, you'd have to believe that it's common for players in this game to call the river with hands you can beat. But what hands are those?? Pocket pairs were counterfeited on the turn... do we really think these players are so bad that they are calling the turn with holding 88 and playing AAQQ8 as their hand? Seems like quite a stretch to me.

I think that betting is just asking to lose more to the case Q, while almost never delivering value. Worse, you're in fact going to lose that extra bet to the case Q quite often, as this hand going down between any not-completely-idiotic opponents will virtually always have you being shown quads at showdown.

thanks,
Eric

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Crap. I thought were were playing 4/8 dollars not 400/800. My bad.