Swings in NLCASH

[juggernaut]

Can anyone with experience comment on swings/variance in headsup cash games? I'm a sixmax player and have 5-7 buyin downswings with the occasional 10-12 buyin downer. How much 'worse' can I expect it to be in headsup? Thanks for any advice...

[MasterLJ]

Really depends on your style and your stakes.

I think if the stakes are reasonably low and your style isn't too aggressive/bluffy most of your downswings will be in the neighborhood of 5-10 BIs.

[juggernaut]

Ok, yeah, I should have given a little more info. I'm playing .50/1 and 1/2, pretty snug, not a whole lot of bluffing.

[PureDiesel]

I'm interested in this too.

[brandysbich]

I'm not great but i'm a winner at .5/1 and have had an 18bi downswing already..it really just depends on how you control tilt and stuff and if you have and can stick to a stop/loss...also how well you game select...but i dont think 20 bi downswings are impossible for even decent players. But day to day variance, you shouldnt let losing 5 or 6 buy ins affect you cos that will become sooo standard

[RevoltBG]

I've played around 25k hands of mostly 0.5/1 and a little of .25/.5 and 1/2 and I would say that if you play solid and table-select good swings of more than 7-8 BuyIns should be pretty uncommon

[jay_shark]

[ QUOTE ]
Can anyone with experience comment on swings/variance in headsup cash games? I'm a sixmax player and have 5-7 buyin downswings with the occasional 10-12 buyin downer. How much 'worse' can I expect it to be in headsup? Thanks for any advice...

[/ QUOTE ]

Tnixon , you need to learn how to read the original post .

Take a deep breath and start with the very first question he addressed . Your standard deviation , which is the square root of variance , is going to be larger than 100 big blinds/100 hands for the typical player . So this means ,with a win-rate of 8ptbb/100 hands and a s.d of 60ptbb/100 hands there is a 68% chance that you will win between 16-120 to 16+120 big blinds in your first 100 hands .

Read the second question carefully .
"how much 'worse' can I expect it to be heads up ? "

Where the [censored] does it say he wants to know the probability of dropping x buy-ins after some time t>=0 ?

You should go read Hooked on Phonics because it may do you some good .

[sweetjazz]

To the former Red Sox and current Indian:

He who argues with a fool makes it two.

[TNixon]

[ QUOTE ]
Tnixon , you need to learn how to read the original post .

[/ QUOTE ]
You need to read the original post, and then read the rest of them, and then learn to UNDERSTAND what people are actually asking. Seriously, your reading comprehension sucks major ass.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a sixmax player and have 5-7 buyin downswings with the occasional 10-12 buyin downer. How much 'worse' can I expect it to be in headsup?

[/ QUOTE ]

That is quite clearly a question about how drastic downswings can be, and the question was quite clearly framed in terms of "X buyin downswings".

Furthermore, even if by some amazing miracle, that question wasn't actually asking how much bigger the swings can be (although how you could posssibly misread such a simple question is *completely* beyond me) there have been many other posts in the thread that are obviously quite specifically talking about the odds of downswings over a period of time. You have tried to answer those questions using RoR calculations, but there are really two possible questions here:

#1: What are the chances that I'm going to have a 20 buyin downswing starting RIGHT NOW.

#2: What are the chance of having a 20 buyin downswing starting at any point over the next X hands.

RoR is actually an upper bound on the answer to question one, and that is apparently the question you keep answering repeatedly.

However, not only is question #1 not what people generally mean when asking about downswings, but it is completely inappropriate to try to answer questions about the frequency of 20BI downswings (such as how likely it is to have at least one per month, which is another specific situation that has been mentioned).

You keep giving an answer to question #1, but that IS NOT THE QUESTION AT HAND. Nobody gives a [censored] if the downswing starts NOW. They care if it's going to happen at *any* point over the next X number of hands.

Lets say we want to know how likely it is to have a 20 buyin downswing over the next 1500 hands. If we go up for 1k hands, and *then* start a 20 buyin downswing that lasts 500 hands, that is still a 20 buyin downswing at some point in the next 1500 hands even though it didn't start at the beginning of the 1500 hands.

And this is exactly where your complete lack of comprehension comes in.

In the past, you've said that I'm not very good at making myself clear.

But it honestly does not get any more clear than this. If you still cannot understand why you are completely off-base, and have been through this entire thread, then the problem is not my lack of clarity, it's YOUR lack of understanding and comprehension.

But since you're so convinced you know what the original post was asking, and that you've sufficiently answered, lets ask?

Juggernaut, if you're still around (which is highly unlikely), could you please comment on whether Question #1 or #2 is more relevant to what you were asking to begin with?

I know the answer, but apparently jay_shark needs to hear it from somebody other than me. Which makes some amount of sense, because I've made the price of admission *very* high by now.

[dying2win]

lol