Wtf.. I have no idea how to play sats.. - Page 2

b-komplex · #11 08-05-2007, 02:49 AM

u realize this is a turbo right?

blankoblanco · #12 08-05-2007, 02:52 AM

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u realize this is a turbo right?

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you realize this is a turbo satellite right?

illini43 · #13 08-05-2007, 02:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
u realize this is a turbo right?

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you realize this is a turbo satellite right?

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erocplayer · #14 08-05-2007, 02:52 AM

DOESN'T ANYONE REALIZE THAT THIS IS A SATELLITE?!

b-komplex · #15 08-05-2007, 02:54 AM

folding nits what is he losing to?

Pants Optional · #16 08-05-2007, 03:01 AM

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folding nits what is he losing to?

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does the anthology have topics about satellites? if so, read them

LazyBob · #17 08-05-2007, 03:01 AM

lol

woohoo88 · #18 08-05-2007, 03:06 AM

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folding nits what is he losing to?

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the shove is very obviously +cev, but it's also (less obviously) -$ev. Someone else may care to elaborate on the math.

I'm more interested what range (if any) we can shove here. I'm guessing KK+.

Sherman · #19 08-05-2007, 03:56 AM

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folding nits what is he losing to?

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Someone else may care to elaborate on the math.

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My vote is for Stumpy. He's good at maths.

Sherman · #20 08-05-2007, 04:08 AM

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folding nits what is he losing to?

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It's not about what he is losing to. It is about what he could lose to.

Say hypothetically that if he folds this hand right now he is 95% to get a seat.

If he shoves, his opponents are certainly not drawing dead. But, let's say he is 75% to win the pot if he shoves. If he shoves and wins, he gets a seat 100% of the time.

When he shoves and loses, his chances of getting a seat drop to ~40%. Again this is hypothetical.

So 75% of the time, he increases his $EV from $204.25 (.95 * $215) to $215. A gain of $10.75.

25% of the time he decreases his $EV from $204.25 (.95 * $215) to $86 (.40 * $215), a loss of $129.

Now to complete the math: (.75 * $10.75) + (.25 * -$128) = $8.06 + -$32.25 ~= -$24.19.

Thus, shoving here costs the OP $24.19 everytime he does so, making a +cEV play -$EV.

This example is hypothetical to demonstrate why making a +cEV play in a Sat can be hugely -$EV. An even better one can be done in this case by 1) making better estimates of OP's chances of winning a seat if he folds 2) making estimates of his opponents' hand ranges 3) running the numbers in pokerstove and 4) making a better estimate of his chances of winning a seat if he loses.