Stud8 - Is this Collusion?

[Raxxmataxx]

Seat 7 started with (73)4 and hit the Q on the river. Then the site shuffled his cards at showdown and it looked like he started with (Q7)4.

Lots of players don't play a 4-low aggressively. You can't discount a made low on 5th.

Seat 7's most probable hand is precisely 44 + a 4-low. The next one is two pair. He's not betting out because he wants to knock hero out and cut down competition for high, but don't want to put in 3 bets against the probable made low.

BI doesn't need to have a wheel draw to destroy aces here. He just needs a made low. Any will do. And if he's the least bit passive his play is very consistent with exactly that.

Betting 5th is disastrous. Even if you by luck are up against two paired lowdraws you're still in a world of pain. It's a checkfold, period.

The bring-ins hand wasn't shown because this is Full Tilt and they don't show losing hands. His hand probalby was 86, 83 or 82 though. There's just a very small range of hands for his hole cards to begin with, given that he was scooped, and that's even smaller if we want them to be a little bit consistent with his betting.

Any other low hole cards and he would have had a better low, any pair and he would've beat the pair of fours. It's pretty unlikely he went haywire with a busted flushdraw. Any straightdraws would've taken at least half the pot.

Bluff equity isn't something you invest, it's the extra part of the pot you get when someone folds a better hand.