QQ caps and donk still likes to play

[drzen]

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If I'm villain, I'd def. raise your bet with a lot of the holdings I mentioned even though you capped PF. Villain doesn't know that you only cap the top few hands.

I'm not sure why you think you're WB against villain here. You are sure he has AA or KK or 99 just because he raises your flop bet? Think about his range.

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Okay, what is his range? I don't mean "which cards could he conceivably have threebet with?" I mean "which cards he could conceivably have threebet with will he raise a capper's flop bet with?"

The reason I mentioned my capping range was to show you that it's not likely he thinks I've been out of line. He may never have seen me cap before.

[DrModern]

I just meant: his raising range given the action is not just AA, KK, and 99.

Also, I wasn't advocating "raising for information." I meant: raise for value, villain's response to your raise gives you a better sense of where you stand as an added bonus.

See KingOtter's post for more.

[drzen]

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I just meant: his raising range given the action is not just AA, KK, and 99.

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Why not?

I capped preflop. If he's ever seen me cap and show down, it will have been a big hand. I can't remember whether he has but he won't have seen me get much out of line with my raises. He won't think in figures, I daresay, but he'll figure I raise about the same range he does.

He's passive and my read is he rarely raises. You think this guy is raising with no pair? Maybe you're right, but why?

Your answer seems to be "because his PF range was wider than AA/KK/99". But we're not PF. We're on the flop and I've bet out. I say he'll call all day with anything less than a big pair, so AK/AQ/AJ are all out. I think TT is very, very unlikely, first of all to threebet PF and second to raise after a cap. I discount QQ because that's just too unlikely given I have the same hand but okay, that's in there. JJ is possible, I grant you, but I think, again, you have to consider it more likely he'll just call it down and hope I have something like AK/AQ.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I wasn't advocating "raising for information." I meant: raise for value, villain's response to your raise gives you a better sense of where you stand as an added bonus.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please show me why you think I have value here.

Against a LAG, yes. Against a TAG, yes. I will threebet both. But I think mindless autoraising when you have big cards is a mistake and I think it's a mistake right here in particular.

What do you do when you're capped, by the way? Will you fold to the cap, or are you calling down? If you're calling down, you spent two more bets to find out what I think I already know.


[ QUOTE ]
See KingOtter's post for more.

[/ QUOTE ]

King Otter's post is a roadmap to losing money. Raising the turn is pure spew here. If a very passive player, after I've capped, raises this nothing flop and bets the turn, I am not raising either expensive street without improving. It's demented. At best I lose two bets if I have the sense to fold the turn to his threebet. (But how can I? If his "range" can be behind on the flop, it can still be behind on the turn, so how do I find a fold?) Worst and most likely case, he calls the raise and donks the river and then I have to call "because it's a big pot". Or am I leading the river? Folding to his raise?

[gostros]

Before I start, do you know how many hands you had on your opponent here? That would really help me evaluate whether your very specific and important read is reliable. After all, this hand is obviously all about the read from the flop on.

[ QUOTE ]
I capped preflop. If he's ever seen me cap and show down, it will have been a big hand. I can't remember whether he has but he won't have seen me get much out of line with my raises. He won't think in figures, I daresay, but he'll figure I raise about the same range he does.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you're giving villain too much credit here, but it doesn't really matter. He is not thinking about your hand, only his own. That said, his range is still probobly very small, assuming your read is correct. You are WB here.

To those who think villain has a bigger range, I ask why? Does villain raise the flop with AK? Doubt it. No other big pair hand even comes into the picture. Does he raise with TT or JJ? Maaaaybe, but where do you draw the line for his preflop 3-betting range? Does villain 3-bet with any hand he would raise with? I don't know, but if he does, then 99 comes into play too. Then you have 99,KK,AA all beating you and JJ,TT way behind. Either way, it doesn't look good.

The problem here is, we really don't know the specific nuances of villain's play enough to really say much about his raise on the flop.

This is why I think a c/r on the flop would be smarter. If villain 3-bets here, you are almost surely behind, and can fold or c/f the turn. If villain calls, you could very well be WA.

The more I think about it, the more I like the c/r line on the flop. You may get an overcall as well, which is very likely +EV against your holding.

C/r clears up everything much better that leading out here. It could end up saving you bets, and it could end up getting you the maximum value if you are ahead. If villain raises, you are saving about 1.5 BB over the alternative (calling down) when you're behind and villain 3-bets. If villain is ahead but slows down, it still costs you the same number of bets as the line you took.

There are probobly some flaws in my reasoning, and I'd love to hear them!

[marchron]

[ QUOTE ]
I capped preflop. If he's ever seen me cap and show down, it will have been a big hand. I can't remember whether he has but he won't have seen me get much out of line with my raises. He won't think in figures, I daresay, but he'll figure I raise about the same range he does.

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If he showed this much thought, he wouldn't be 68/9.