Insane Beat: Mondo Unlucky

[ChrisV]

Heh. Well if you didn't fake up the graph, then God truly hates and despises you.

[Warteen]

I played AYSO soccer when I was a kid. Mondo can only mean one thing:

[dank stax]

[censored] man, thats rough - wtf

what site?

[ImsaKidd]

mastr I really dont want to [censored] all over your beat or anything...

But it looks like there is some error that misestimates your equity. You can see the difference between red and green basically constantly increases. For example, if the error amounted to 1ptbb/100 difference, then it would constantly increase.

That, or God has decided to take a massive crap all over you.

[mastr]

no its been separately checked and everything, its me being massively crapped on.

[Paul B.]

blue green red graph plz

[Phil153]

[ QUOTE ]
This is all full tilt with some stars, I can switch to the standard blue green format if you guys really want, though there's really no difference. No errors in the pokerEV, have checked multiple times.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not aware of any errors, but damn it looks suspicious.

[ QUOTE ]
Can anyone tell me how unlikely this is?

[/ QUOTE ]

I ran it through a binomial calculator(java). Assuming a full buyin for each all-in and average 50% equity(i.e. 0 expectation), the probability of running bad in 75 extra all-ins is around 0.00005, or 1 in 20,000 [n=1500, p=0.5, x is fewer than 675]. Include the effects of variable pot sizes and it's probably around 1 in 10,000 or so. In other words, a swing this big will happen to around 2-10 BBVers a year. If you have 60% average equity instead of 50 going in, the swing becomes more unlikely...about 1 in 30K vs 1 in 20K. This is just an estimate (you can't calculate it without doing a sim on your exact equities), but it's in the same ballpark of probability.

Assuming it's not an error, this is just [censored] brutal man.

[BadMoFu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is all full tilt with some stars, I can switch to the standard blue green format if you guys really want, though there's really no difference. No errors in the pokerEV, have checked multiple times.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not aware of any errors, but damn it looks suspicious.

[ QUOTE ]
Can anyone tell me how unlikely this is?

[/ QUOTE ]

I ran it through a binomial calculator(java). Assuming a full buyin for each all-in and average 50% equity(i.e. 0 expectation), the probability of running bad in 75 extra all-ins is around 0.00005, or 1 in 20,000 [n=1500, p=0.5, x is fewer than 675]. Include the effects of variable pot sizes and it's probably around 1 in 10,000 or so. In other words, a swing this big will happen to around 2-10 BBVers a year. If you have 60% average equity instead of 50 going in, the swing becomes more unlikely...about 1 in 30K vs 1 in 20K.

Assuming it's not an error, this is just [censored] brutal man.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that is a good post, statistics ftw.

[syndr0me]

holy crap thats unlucky


Whenever I see this I always wonder about all the players here that never show how lucky they run and dont post it cuz they treasure their fanboys too much

[Mr.Busto]

hey u play the game
dont ask us