100NL: Interpreting an overbet

[a breath of air]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

<u>SB: $215.35</u>
<u>Hero (BB): $154.10</u>
UTG: $105.20
CO: $101.50
BTN: $95.50

Reads: <font color="blue">Villain is 31/5/2(172), bet river: 19%, went to SD: 27%, won $ at SD: 46%.</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players)
3 folds, SB calls $0.50, Hero checks

Flop: ($2) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 Q (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $1.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.00</font>, SB calls $2.00

Turn: ($8) T (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $2.00</font>, Hero calls $2.00

River: ($12) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $30.00</font>, Hero calls $30.00

Pot Size: $72.00 ($3 Rake)

Please post comments and/or suggestions.

[mertzo]

You will split here ALOT, but remember its only 30 to win 6. So i fold all day

[a breath of air]

[ QUOTE ]
You will split here ALOT, but remember its only 30 to win 6. So i fold all day

[/ QUOTE ]

Getting 1.4:1, assuming his or her range is any Q or 55 I have 46% equity making this call correct equity wise. Are there any other considerations I should be thinking about in this situation?

[Sphere99991]

QT also beats you. But I still call. His range includes 5x not putting you on the queen after the flop raise.

[a breath of air]

[ QUOTE ]
QT also beats you. But I still call. His range includes 5x not putting you on the queen after the flop raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you expand his or her range to any Q or any 5, my equity becomes 81%, making a raise correct. Do you think that many people, even weak loose players, over-bet the river with a 5 here?

[Kilillan]

river is actually a fold I think

[a breath of air]

[ QUOTE ]
river is actually a fold I think

[/ QUOTE ]

Will you elaborate more please?

[Kilillan]

you have 6 dollars invested

you're calling a huge overbet for a split, and you're going to lose a good % of the time

this is never a bluff.

someone can run the numbers, but it's prob a fold

[Bramsterdam]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

37 games 0.005 secs 7,400 games/sec

Board: Qs 5c Qd Td 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.595% 00.00% 44.59% 0 16.50 { Qc3s }
Hand 1: 55.405% 10.81% 44.59% 4 16.50 { 55, Q2s+, Q2o+ }

I guess this is a fold

[a breath of air]

Getting 1.4:1, I need 42% equity to make a call break even, my equity is 46%.