Big draw on the bubble - play it strong or play it safe?

[schusch]

without reading all comments below,
according to your reads and so on, id check this and hope for free/cheap card.
i dont like to c/r such ppl cause they call with crap k-high and you wont improve always.i'd rather c/r AI here if you had T4 or 7,8 diamonds.

[ThePhoenix78]

Ok, I agree somewhat...I did check, hoping for a free card. But I decided right away that if he did bet, I was C/Ring him all-in. If he is stupid enough to call with K high (he actually did call with AQ, no draw), then I'm quite happy because that means I likely have 18 outs. (Here, I had 17, because he had a diamond) and I guess maybe technically closer to 16 because if I hit a T or 3, he could still hit an A or Q.

In any case, why wouldn't you want to C/R someone who will call with just A high and only a backdoor draw??? That means you're getting your money in as a favorite. Yes I won't hit always, but no hand wins all the time. Best you can do is get your money in as the favorite.

Also, I really don't agree with people who say check-call. The value of this hand comes from semi-bluffing and getting to see all 5 cards. I am a dog with one card to come, but a favorite with two to come. So why play it just to see one card by check-calling? Anybody else agree with my logic?

[MonkeyButler]

completely agree with your logic - you are spot on..