Dancing With the Stars 5

[darko3131]

Just curious what would anyone else do if they were me? Basically I've already won $385 on Helio being last man and vs. bets, I've lost $20 on Sabrina thinking she'd be a good hedge for Helio, so I'm up $365.

My only open bet is Helio to win, $50 to win $425. My gut is telling me that Helio will indeed be the winner, he's peaking at the right time- a perfect 60/60 last week, he's had a good fan base from the begining, and from what I can tell he's getting alot of credit for being the only finalist who isn't an entertainer plus he's the only male to vote for and 80% of voters are women. BUT Marie's fan base is just so big, I worry it could carry her to the win.

so what to do basically?
1. Trust my gut and let it ride with Helio.
2. Hedge some with female at -135 on bodog- if so how much would be recommended?
3. Choose either Mel or Marie as the hedge, putting less at risk. will bodog put the lines back up between monday and tuesday's shows or likely not? because it would be easier to pick one over the other after seeing the scores.

[stereoman]

One's assuming Helio's been the long-time favourite purely on the basis that he's the one who's reported to be getting the most phone votes right?

I can understand the danger and fear of Marie Osmond causing a huge upset if she's come this far than her fans must be pretty zealous...as must Melanie's fans be.

Bet365's odds ~

Outright: Helio 4/6, Melanie 6/4 and Marie 4/1

Bodog's odds ~

Outright: Helio 10/11, Melanie 3/2 and Marie 2/1
Gender: Male -110, Female -130

The Greek's odds ~

Outright: Helio +100, Melanie +125 and Marie +350

Matchbook's odds ~

Will Helio win? Yes n/a, No -138
Will Marie win? Yes +400, No -860
Will Melanie win? Yes n/a, No -330

=============

If I didn't know any better I think the public think Mel's been the best dancer, Helio's been the best male dancer but Marie has a helluva strong fanbase. It's an absolute pain to try and work out.

The best possible arb is over at Bet365 if you're wanting to cover both Melanie and Marie though so you might want to try that.

[thing85]

As an aside, it looks like the Greek has good value on Helio at +100 given the other sites all have negative odds. Does he have a >50% chance of winning?

[llabb]

Assuming that Helio has been the long-time fav the whole way is simply due to people's capping. He has not been reported to be getting the most phone votes. (Unless you have other info, if so, link please?)

I would guess that he is the fav at the books simply because he looked good early in the season. The books do not cap fanbases much. The volume bet on this is too small for them to care much, hence oftentimes soft lines with low limits. They mainly go by judges' scores and whether they are better/worse dancers.

So Helio and Sabrina were the favs at the start of the season, understandably. When Sabrina started pulling away scoring-wise, she became the fav, and Helio was getting longer +odds. When Sabrina was surprise-booted, Helio was the only remaining fav, so his odds got real short.

Now that Mel's been getting better and better scores, her status has improved a lot also. If there were no prior history, the books would probably have Mel a very slight fav to Helio, and Marie a total dog.

That being said, I favor Helio to win but am wary of Marie's fanbase. If there were a 2-way finale between them, Helio would win. As is, with a 3-way finale, Marie's fanbase may still be strong enough, with other voters split between the two best dancers. Bets on Helio at +odds and Marie at long +odds are still decent imo.

Darko, your question is a basic issue of hedging and how much the money means to you/your bankroll. If it's not big deal, and you simply want EV, then just let it ride or hedge with Marie at long +odds. If you would be upset at losing the $50 on Helio, then hedge with the Bodog female at -130, although this is -EV imo. And at current odds, betting separately on Marie and Mel as a combined hedge sucks.

If it were me in your shoes, I'd make a small wager on Marie so that you win money whether Helio or Marie wins, regardless. At the amounts you listed, you can make it so that you have bet $145 total to win $330 equally whether Helio or Marie wins, or you can bet less so that you win more on Helio and less on Marie. It simply depends on how high you think Marie's chances of winning are, and also if you are willing to risk more money, even though Mel has a shot at winning and whether you are concerned about that. For me, I will win decent money whether either Helio or Marie wins, and will lose if Mel wins.

[darko3131]

Thanks for the tips, I'm still undecided. Those odds at bet365 look really nice stereoman, but I'm really limited to bodog. I can't deposit into a sportsbook so I can only play if I get free money or in bodog's case playing poker freerolls. With that being the case I'm always playing with house money which is good, but I also built my bankroll literally $1 at a time, and if I ever lost it all its basically game over with my sportsbetting. So for that reason I do hedge and find arbs. maybe even more than necessary.

It obviously wouldn't kill me if I let it ride and one of the females won because I'd still be up $315 for the season, keeping in mind I only would have risked $270, any season over 100% return I consider ok. If he won then I'm talking almost 300% return which is what I consider a great season, and along the lines of what I did for America's got talent, American Idol, and last years DWTS.

If I do chicken out and decide on a hedge I like your idea of the Marie hedge llabb. I'm back and forth with her chances of winning, with the fan base she has. Can anyone think of a reality show in which someone like her has actually won though? Sanjaya made it like 3 weeks further than he should have but he wasn't a threat to win though, Kendra Wilkinson made it all the way to the final 2 in mtv's rap challenge but in the end she didn't win, people like Master P. have been carried by fan vote in DTWS but a good dancer has always won.

[stereoman]

Hmmm. The odds at Matchbook:

Will Helio win? Yes -130, No -150
Will Marie win? Yes +1200, No n/a
Will Melanie win? Yes -760, No -138

Mel looks ominous to win but how crazy will Marie's fans attack the phonelines!?

[darko3131]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm. The odds at Matchbook:

Will Helio win? Yes -130, No -150
Will Marie win? Yes +1200, No n/a
Will Melanie win? Yes -760, No -138

Mel looks ominous to win but how crazy will Marie's fans attack the phonelines!?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming those odds went up after the show ended tonight because Marie was awful. I wouldn't bet on Marie at any odds, she really did have a chance if she posted similar scores to the other two but after that showing forget it. Thank god I didn't bite on betting anything on Marie before the show.

It's going to be very close between Helio and Mel. the -760 odds on Mel winning are crazy though, if her no odds went anywhere close to that, I'd say there is big value. I'm just glad I got Helio when I did.