~NL25. Losing value with KK?

[xoom]

Cryptologic
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $51.58
CO: $4.27
Button: $9.95
SB: $5.17
Hiro: $12.25

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hiro is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, Button calls, SB folds, SB folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hiro raises to $0.5</font>, Button calls.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($1.05, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hiro bets $1</font>, Button calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($3.05, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hiro bets $2</font>, Button calls.

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($7.05, 2 players)
Hiro ?

Question here is what is the best play on the river? Make a bet and hope to get value from Qx or check and call a bluff from a straight or flush draw.

Villain in this hand is 49/2/1.5 over 40 hands fwiw.

[thac]

He's pretty passive, he's probably not gonna bluff a missed draw (unless you have a note on him that he will), so I'd bet 6 and pray to get a call from a queen.

[HotdogPoker]

I'd just bet it myself and hope he had the Q. I'm not convinced that NL10 players will bluff enough with missed draws to make check/calling profitable.

[traz]

hero bets 5

[xoom]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd just bet it myself and hope he had the Q. I'm not convinced that NL10 players will bluff enough with missed draws to make check/calling profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

The currency should be £, so this is actually NL25, not that it makes much difference. How aggressive do villain have to be to make a check/call more +EV than a bet? Should I always bet in spots like these unless I've seen villain bluff missed draws?

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
hero bets 5

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure 6 gets called with the same frequency as 5.

[Quester]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
hero bets 5

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure 6 gets called with the same frequency as 5.

[/ QUOTE ]

And 7 gets called only slightly less often than 6, so why not just pot?

[traz]

Why not just bet 9?

I actually think there's a fairly big psychological difference between 5 and 6.

[Quester]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not just bet 9?

I actually think there's a fairly big psychological difference between 5 and 6.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but of course 6 doesn't have to be called as often as 5 to yield a higher expectation, and of course 7 doesn't have to be called as often as 6.

There is a good section on this in Mathematics of Poker, IIRC.

I think betting pot has higher expectation than betting $5 or $6 here. Very villain dependent of course, but at 10NL passive players tend to overvalue top pair in my experience.

[traz]

I understand that. Quite obviously, my arguement is $5 gets called more often enough to make it a better bet. But on the whole this is largely irrelevant and just clogging up the thread.

Betting pot does not maximize river value in most cases imo