pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]

[carnivalhobo]

lol carrot runs goooooood

[Barrin6]

I think you guys are misinformed by the PokerEV. Total winnings= total winnings that you win from poker period.
And Total expected winnings are the only ones when you are all-in and there is a showdown. Thus you can't really compare the two?


Even if that's not the case, there is for sure a problem with us reading/understanding PokerEv's graphs.

My stance on it is just an excuse to play bad and blame variance.

[Dire]

Doesn't the $15,000 difference between the blue and red basically mean constantly sucking out after the money goes in? Don't use the software, just the impression I get from everybody whining with red above blue.

[Roger Mainfield]

No that's the difference between the blue and red lines I think. So at showdown he has had X equity (6Kish..) but actually lost 10K which means he is running bad for 16Kish about I think. I think the totl winning means he forces people off the best hand a lot, and wins a large amount of pots without a showdown, which makes sense, cause he has only 6K of equity from getting to showdown.

Basically my interpretation of carrotsnakes graph is he wins a lot of small pots and bullies people off hands, but when he is called he does worse than other people would.

Not sure if this is correct actually and would like input.

I have never had the green line above the red, and I have only seen one graph where someone was running above equity (red vs blue) Over the last 50K hands I was down approx 45 buyins in sklansky bucks, and that seems standard.

[thedustbustr]

more graphs please!

[_dave_]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you guys are misinformed by the PokerEV. Total winnings= total winnings that you win from poker period.


[/ QUOTE ]

Correct.

[ QUOTE ]

And Total expected winnings are the only ones when you are all-in and there is a showdown. Thus you can't really compare the two?


[/ QUOTE ]

No, they can certainly be compared. Most people who post pokerEV graphs have a green line way below red/blue, except for kotkis, ahnuld, and a few other MSNLers, and it would seem, carrotsnake.

think of of this way.. a poor nitty player (winner) loses
$ w/o showdown, but the magnitude of showdown winnings makes them a winner. (green positive, but below red/blue)

A reasonable player wins/loses an equal amount w/o showdown - greeen = red/blue.

A postflop monster wins tgreatly w/o showdown, resulting in +EV even when taking the worst of it... carrotsnake, kotkis, ahnuld et.al. (green above red/blue)

[ QUOTE ]

Even if that's not the case, there is for sure a problem with us reading/understanding PokerEv's graphs.

My stance on it is just an excuse to play bad and blame variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not the case, but I'm sure many will use it as such (OMG look how bad I run etc.). In carrotsnake's graph, maybe a possible beat... difference between red/blue is the amount you have run bad/good.

So Carrot is running ~15K below expectation when all in - yet turns a serious profit due winning without showdown... I'd love to learn how to do that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


EDITED TO ADD: If Carrot played nittly like I (and I assume many other marginal SSNLers do), he would have been barely break even / slight loser over this sample.. as is... WOW!
dave.

[Dire]

I believe sklansky bucks are generally your adjusted equity. So if you have 40% equity when all the money goes in for a $1000 pot then you would have 'earned' $400 sklansky bucks. And the showdown winnings are the actual result, so if you go all in with 40% equity in a $1000 pot and lose then you'd have a total of $400 sklansky bucks/red and $0 showdown winnings/blue? That would mean:

blue above red = sucking out
blue below red = getting sucked out on
blue = red = running at expectation

[carrotsnake]

guys, I'm definately running above expectations in those graphs :/

[carrotsnake]

by the way, the term sucked out on is not correct, a lot of those "skalanky bucks" come from winning a few coinflips AI preflop like AK/JJ where I have technically 900ish in equity at 5/10 if I get it in, so I have 900 bucks if I lose and -1100 if I win [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Jay Riall]

These graphs are soo [censored] lame, they don't mean jacksh*t. All they are is a very small comfort when running bad imo.