talk about the worst possible river card

[dchz]

i dont think an ace is undoubtedly folding, unless your image is a nit, i've know plenty of people that will pay off here with an A or a K

i seriously think you are missing a value bet,

the likely hood that he has Kings full is too small for you to miss the value bets

the -EV from better FH is so small that you +EV value bet should cancel it out

even if he is only calling with AQ, your EV with a value bet is stil huge if you factor in the bigger full houses

The proability of a bigger FH here is very smalll -- main point of my post

value bet plz

[Tickner]

once he checks to you on the river you know you have the best hand 99% of the time.

[dchz]

[ QUOTE ]
once he checks to you on the river you know you have the best hand 99% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

interpretation, you need to value bet, whether he pays you off depends more on your image to him than your mainly PF stats on him

[MagicNinja]

[nevereverwin]

Zomg! I am beting river and if raised AI I call all day here! If he have biger FH so be it and you can add one more 100$ to your downswing..

[dmoney]

I really can't imagine this hand being played worse.

The flop check is ok sometimes, however you should be firing repping an Ace here alot, ok, so now because you didnt fire flop, you have 1 of 2 hands a) set, or b) top 2. becuase when you check here alarm bells start going off after you raise. Villain could easily have KQ here, or even set of 7s.

You absolutely must fire rver for 40$

[thedustbustr]

[ QUOTE ]
so now because you didnt fire flop, you have 1 of 2 hands a) set, or b) top 2. becuase when you check here alarm bells start going off after you raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
i agree with this. unfortunately my 2 outing skills are not as sharp as they used to be, or i'd be betting the flop. there is nothing forcing me to cbet on wet boards that either give him pair value or draw/float value. betting flop here with JJ is a leak imo. so yes when i suckout its really obv i have a monster now, but i mean what else am i supposed to do but raise and hope he has a flush draw or AK?

kq? kq folds the turn a decent amount, and bets the river every single time when it improves. 77? 77 reraises the turn, and if it doesnt do that, it bets the river - the pot is small, he would want to put more money in before one of a million bad cards come.

the only thing that would check the river is a marginal hand, a missed hand, or a hand that improved to a friggin monster.

results: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or something like that. I dunno if he would have called $40 on the river. I really doubt it.

[thedustbustr]

[ QUOTE ]
Zomg! I am beting river and if raised AI I call all day here! If he have biger FH so be it and you can add one more 100$ to your downswing..

[/ QUOTE ]
so says the fish when he cant fold AA on the 6789 board, because that would just be a cooler

edit: sorry not trying to be an ass, just demonstrating that your argument isn't great

[thedustbustr]

[ QUOTE ]
the likely hood that he has Kings full is too small for you to miss the value bets

...

even if he is only calling with AQ, your EV with a value bet is stil huge if you factor in the bigger full houses


[/ QUOTE ]

erm, if he calls with only AQ, how is the EV with a value bet 'huge'? combinatorically thats a very tight range. almost as tight as those boats.


[ QUOTE ]
the -EV from better FH is so small that you +EV value bet should cancel it out

[/ QUOTE ]
paraphrasing: the bet is +EV because there is a +EV value bet. um, yea.

[Novles]

tdb,

just bet, this isn't hard. he'll even call with just a jack some of the time, because "oooh, now i've got 2pr with ace kickers! and no way he has ace or king cuz he didn't bet flop!" And you not having the J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] makes it more likely he has one, so don't use the argument he doesn't b/c turn w/ just a jack, because people do weird [censored] when the pfr doesn't c-bet a AKx flop.