call this bluff?

[thedustbustr]

i think you're overanalysing.

its way easier to put an extra $21 in on a bluff than it is to put $80 in on a bluff. the latter takes waaaay more stones.

i didn't really follow your probability argument, ill read it again in the morning.

regardless, its incalcuable, and doing even more complicated calculations requires far finer data, so i don't really see a point to going beyond 'looks like 58 or a set or qj, thats a very narrow range for someone who seems to see a lot of flops, so theres a few bluffs in his range'

[Dire]

Yeah, my post was too wordy.

1. Estimate how often he bluffs the turn. Call that x.
2. Estimate how often he fires a second barrel on the river overcard. Call that y.

x*y is his river bluff percentage. If it's greater than .33, you must call.

Complication: This does not account for the times he was bluffing with a queen or flush that hit on the river. Could compensate by adding a few % to your required % for a river call. Regardless, if you really do think he is bluffing this turn rather frequently, you will usually end up with the equity for a river call.

[TDouble]

Against said villain seems like a trivial check, call river. Not much to add other than I agree mostly w/ Clayton. On the turn are you hoping he just shuts it down on the river if you call the c/r? Seems very unlikely given brief history/read.

[tubasteve]

[ QUOTE ]
i'd wager my bankroll that he didnt set up the river pot size on purpose. does that affect your argument at all? your last sentence seems to imply that his deliberate bet sizes make it a call

[/ QUOTE ]

eh, i shouldnt assume he did it on purpose, but since thats how it is, i think its likely he will notice the stack/pot ratio (lol) and just shove instead of betting 3/4 his chips.