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#31
11-21-2007, 10:56 PM
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Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
[ QUOTE ]
I expect his value to rise, and investing in him seems smart. [/ QUOTE ] I'm thinking about putting some money on him now or soon and selling after Iowa. I waste so much god damned time following this nonsense, I may as well do something with it. 
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#32
11-21-2007, 10:58 PM
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Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Brownback dropping out and Tancredo doing nothing of relevance has left Huckabee the default choice of the conservative Christian crowd. [/ QUOTE ] What makes this development even more interesting is the split between the leaders and the flock. The National Right to Life Committee endorsed Thompson; Pat Robertson endorsed Guiliani; Romney has a string of endorsements from Conservative Christian leaders. Apparently the actual CC voters aren't paying attention to those endorsements. [/ QUOTE ] From what I understand, the Huckabee campaign is beating the crap out of everyone else on the ground in Iowa among the conservative Christian activist groups. Huckabee himself stumps all over Iowa. And he's planning on moving his campaign headquarters from Arkansas to Des Moines and hiring even more ground troops. I suspect that partially (if not completely) explains Huckabee's strength in Iowa; while the endorsements from some of the national groups are important, Huckabee has campaign people everywhere in Iowa -- and that's certainly a state where the retail politics of having campaign workers knocking on doors and sitting in with worship small groups and attending coffee hours at churches, etc. matters a lot. Iowa voters are conditioned to having attention lavished on them by campaigns and have come to expect that level of attention before going to the primary caucus and voting for a candidate. So it's essentially Iowa or bust for Huckabee, and I think the recent poll results show how many resources he's putting into the state. As far as the wisdom of the strategic calculation, the Iowa bounce propelled Kerry to the nomination in 2004, but meant nothing for Dole and Pat Robertson in 1988. So it's a gamble, for sure. Even if he wins Iowa, he's going to have to scramble very fast to get ready for a multi-state campaign. I'm not sure he's as well-positioned for that right now as Romney or Giuliani, but 2 months is a long time. I think it's the 'right' move for Huckabee because it's likely the only one available to him. I like the idea of buying up Huckabee until Iowa then dumping afterwards.
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#33
11-21-2007, 10:58 PM
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Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
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[ QUOTE ] Huckabee has shot up on Intrade from around 8% a month ago to 50% now. [/ QUOTE ] What?? He's still around 8%. lol. You must be looking at something different. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think so. The "last price" is the current value of the contract.
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#34
11-21-2007, 11:00 PM
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Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
That's for Iowa. and 'volume: 42' isn't good enough for serious money [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
forget poker, I wish intrade would get a real customer base. *drool*
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#35
11-21-2007, 11:06 PM
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Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I expect his value to rise, and investing in him seems smart. [/ QUOTE ] Huckabee has shot up on Intrade from around 8% a month ago to 50% now. [/ QUOTE ] What?? He's still around 8%. lol. You must be looking at something different. [/ QUOTE ] He's on intrade at 48% for Iowa. I believe Iron just got confused.
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#37
11-21-2007, 11:09 PM
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Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
[ QUOTE ]
So it's essentially Iowa or bust for Huckabee, and I think the results show how many resources he's putting into the same. As far as the strategic calculation, the Iowa bounce propelled Kerry to the nomination in 2004, but meant nothing for Dole and Pat Robertson in 1988. So it's a gamble, for sure. Even if he wins Iowa, he's going to have to scramble very fast to get ready for a multi-state campaign. I'm not sure he's as well-positioned for that right now as Romney or Giuliani, but 2 months is a long time. [/ QUOTE ] Huckabee's got a money problem. Even if he wins or finishes a close second in Iowa, he has no time to (a) raise money or (b) actually campagin in NH. Right now he is getting good press. He needs that continue to overcome the lack of campaign funds. It might be better for Huckabee to write off NH. Not his type of state, anyway. Just go from Iowa to South Carolina. People should have seen this coming when Huckabee did very well in the summer straw poll in Iowa, despite spending a fraction of what Romney spent. By the way, there was a thread a few months ago about a rape case in Arkansas involving a relative of Bill Clinton. It was suggested that Huckabee intervened inappropriately on behalf of the rapist. He was asked about this on Fox News a few days ago. Of course he claimed he did nothing wrong, but it is an issue that might resurface.
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#38
11-21-2007, 11:16 PM
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Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
[ QUOTE ]
Huckabee's got a money problem. Even if he wins or finishes a close second in Iowa, he has no time to (a) raise money or (b) actually campagin in NH. Right now he is getting good press. He needs that continue to overcome the lack of campaign funds. It might be better for Huckabee to write off NH. Not his type of state, anyway. Just go from Iowa to South Carolina. [/ QUOTE ] I think this is essentially the problem Pat Robertson had. He had a strong, surprising finish in Iowa in 1988 but then couldn't parlay that into success anywhere else because of various timing and campaign issues (and yes, because he's Pat Robertson). It's hard to pour all of your money and staff into a state, then pack your bags and expect to run a successful multi-state campaign in the matter of a few weeks, no matter how much momentum is gained. In 2004, Kerry was well-positioned to go right from his surprising victory in Iowa and head to Massachusetts-neighbor New Hampshire (where he had a sizable campaign staff up until a few weeks before Iowa and had huge name recognition) and not miss a beat. If I'm the Huckabee team and I finish strong in Iowa, I follow your advice: I punt in NH and head right to South Carolina. Writing off NH and failing > trying to compete in NH and failing, especially when "trying to compete in NH" means wasting valuable time, energy and resources that could be spent in South Carolina.
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#40
11-22-2007, 12:44 AM
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Re: Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire
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Wasn't someone offering me 1:1 on ron paul getting 8% of the vote in New Hampshire a few months ago? I'd love to take that bet, whoever you were. [/ QUOTE ] I think I am who you are thinking of...I believe I actually offered 1:1 on the under of 7% in NH. But I have to admit Paul has done better than I expected in the intervening months and I would not take that bet any more. I think the 5% in Iowa that I offered before is more or less a push now.
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