NL25 Flopped top set, akward on turn, more akward on river

[pbx]

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Villian is 20/14/3.5 over 120 hands. Seems to be a compentant tag player and I haven't seen him get out of line yet.

I have one read on him - 2nd hand on this table i have KK vs his AA. Pre flop action is Hero $1 -> Villian $3 -> Hero $10 -> he tank calls. Flop is T high and resonably dry. He tank checks and calls my push.


SB: $48.65
BB: $23.50
UTG: $18.05
MP: $26.60
CO: $53.70
Hero (BTN): $35.20

Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, SB calls $1.15, BB folds, UTG calls $1.00

Flop: ($4) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $2.50</font>, UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7.00</font>, SB calls $4.50

Think i should raise more on the flop, but atm the only draw im worrying about is FD, Hes played this a lot like a lower set. I think raising to $8-9 is better here.

Turn: ($18) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Villian Tank checks and i check behind. Missed Value ? or should i be thinking pot control now and ofc the possible redraw to the House if the flush has just come in

River: ($18) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $27.00</font>, Hero ???

Is this a puke/fold situation ?
What sort of range are you putting him on here ?
Thx for the input

[C4LL4W4Y]

This looks like 99 or 44 most of the time. If he's competent and cold calling your bet out of the blinds, the likelihood he has a pair from 22-99 is high.

Bet the turn, around ~14. Pot will be 32, and if he shoves his remaining 40 in, you'll be getting 72:26, nearly 3 to 1. I'd have a tough time folding in that spot.

[monkover]

You have to call the river having checked the turn. You basically wrote in the chat: "I´m afraid of the flush"
Bet the turn and call a push.

[Waingro]

[ QUOTE ]
This looks like 99 or 44 most of the time. If he's competent and cold calling your bet out of the blinds, the likelihood he has a pair from 22-99 is high.

Bet the turn, around ~14. Pot will be 32, and if he shoves his remaining 40 in, you'll be getting 72:26, nearly 3 to 1. I'd have a tough time folding in that spot.

[/ QUOTE ]
If villain is seemingly tight and competent, he is a 100 times more likely to make a loose call pf with something sooted, than to put significant money in on later streets with less than a monster. There is only a couple of combinations of lower sets and any number of fds with or without added outs.

I would raise more on the flop, to $9. This is sort of a crappy spot, you are giving exellent implied odds, and not many made hands to pay you off, except a slowplayed over pair, and villain doesn´t seem to do that. I think villains flop play looks like a draw, I expect him to 3bet something good. I check behind on the turn also, and fold river. If villain bets smaller, like half pot I call. Now he doesn´t care what you have, he just hopes you will call.

[Seikeau]

The timing tell on the turn makes me believe has has a flush ALOT here, tank then check is a tell so many people on lower limits give away when they hit their flush card. River also complete's an ignorant end OESD but I would'nt really worry about that.

I am too bad to lay this down tho, because of what monkover says.

[Waingro]

[ QUOTE ]
You have to call the river having checked the turn. You basically wrote in the chat: "I´m afraid of the flush"
Bet the turn and call a push.

[/ QUOTE ]
What did villain call the raise with on the flop that he is bluffing the river with? You think he called the flop with A9 and now decided that this is a good river to shove for value? If this guy is on a once in a life-time bluff good for him.

[Seikeau]

AT/A9 trying to represent the flush?

[monkover]

there are a lot of hands that were afraid on the turn as well and now try to get it all in e.g. 10J, 910 or other hands like this

[Waingro]

[ QUOTE ]
AT/A9 trying to represent the flush?

[/ QUOTE ]
Did you read the description in the op?

[ QUOTE ]
Villian is 20/14/3.5 over 120 hands. Seems to be a compentant tag player and I haven't seen him get out of line yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

[pbx]

On the Flop

Board: Th 9h 4c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.888% 16.89% 00.00% 8025 0.00 { 99, 44, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, KQs, KhJh, QhJh, JhTh, T9s }
Hand 1: 83.112% 83.11% 00.00% 39495 0.00 { TT }

On the Turn

Board: Th 9h 4c 3h

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.091% 34.09% 00.00% 720 0.00 { 99, 44, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, KQs, KhJh, QhJh, JhTh, T9s }
Hand 1: 65.909% 65.91% 00.00% 1392 0.00 { TT }


Guess monkover's line is right. Raise more on flop $9ish and bet turn around 2/3-3/4 PSB .